From “new normal” to “unprecedented times,” the pandemic inspired many a catchphrase. Now, four years on, a new word is catching on in the travel landscape as travel sales trends start to resemble something closer to the pre-Covid era: normalization.
A survey from host agency Travel Experts in Raleigh, N.C. (No. 27 on Travel Weekly’s Power List) found that 16.8% of advisors said sales in the first half of 2024 were lower than the same period in 2023. While nearly half, 49.2%, reported higher sales this year, another 34% said sales are the same as they were last year.
While more than half of those advisors reported stagnant or declining sales compared to last year, citing factors including the upcoming presidential election and the cost of travel, 2023 was a record-breaker for Travel Experts and many other travel agencies and agency networks.
That includes Travel Leaders Network, said president Roger Block, who expects this year to eclipse 2023. And although 2024 is set to be another banner year for the network, Block said, “We are seeing not softening but leveling off” in terms of bookings.
Similarly, Travel Edge Network is seeing solid year-over-year growth, according to senior vice president Kevin O’Brien.
Kevin O’Brien
“Are we seeing growth that is less aggressive than ’22 to ’23? Yes,” O’Brien said. “Am I seeing it leveling off or plateauing or anything? No.”
Signature Travel Network also expects 2024 to be a better sales year than 2023, to the tune of 20%, CEO Alex Sharpe said. But that is being driven by higher rates: As far as volume goes, Sharpe said, Signature is “on par with 2023.”
The normalization of demand at travel agencies is on par with what many in the travel sector are reporting. Hilton CEO Chris Nassetta said in a February earnings call that “by the time we get to the end of the year, we think you’ll be at more normalized levels of demand.” Similarly, Marriott CEO Anthony Capuano said in a May earnings report that “demand has normalized” in the U.S. and Canada.
It’s a trend U.S. Travel has seen, too. In a May interview, CEO Geoff Freeman said domestic leisure travel is “normalizing,” albeit at a “rate substantially higher than it was before the pandemic.”
“We’ve been a bit drunk on leisure travel as an industry, and every good party comes to an end,” Freeman said. “So we may well be seeing that now.”
The future looks good
While demand for travel isn’t at the peak it achieved in 2023, the industry is still bullish on the future.
“Consumers really are still looking for experiences, and I think they’ve found that travel offers memories that last a lifetime,” Block said. “The world is so varied, and you can’t just get that by reading a book, so people are really wanting to spend their money on that. So I think the market’s going to continue to grow.”
As evidence of that growth, he pointed to suppliers who are heavily investing in new products such as hotels, resorts, ships and new itineraries.
Block also pointed to the economy and the stock market, both of which are “holding up extremely well.”
Ensemble president Michael Johnson also said that consumer sentiment around travel continues to be positive.
“The post-pandemic shift in consumer spending continues to show that travel is a priority, leading to sustained interest and activity in the industry,” he said. “While growth may slow as a result of myriad factors, from the election to inflation to geopolitical events, demand is anticipated to remain strong.”
The election seems to be on everyone’s mind; historically, election years have proven to be softer for travel. Some advisors Travel Experts polled cited it as a factor for declining sales this year.
So far, Block said, Travel Leaders Network hasn’t seen the traditional downturn associated with a presidential election. While that slump could still happen, “when I talk to the agencies, they’re still seeing strong booking patterns,” he said.
Luxury resilience
One area that seems largely unaffected is luxury travel sales.
“Luxury travel, by its very nature, is a little more resilient,” said Travel Edge Network’s O’Brien.
Among the 49.2% of Travel Experts advisors who said sales this year are higher than last, many attributed that to an increased focus on luxury sales in addition to new clients and referrals.
That is even leading some to refocus their efforts on clients who are more likely to book a suite or first-class air ticket or even private air travel, according to Travel Experts’ director of North Carolina operations, Claire Canady.
“It takes just as much time to book a mass-market trip as it does a luxury one, but the commission payoff at the end is significantly different,” Canady said. “It makes it an easy business position to know where to focus.”
Johanna Jainchill contributed to this story.
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