Trump Media shares make comeback as former president’s election odds rise

Shares of Trump Media and Technology Group have made a roaring comeback over the past month, surging as former President Donald Trump, the majority shareholder, took a commanding lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the betting markets’ 2024 election odds.

The stock, which trades under the ticker DJT, was up nearly 55% over the last month as of Monday morning, and up almost 5% for the day at $26.40 per share as prediction markets favored the former president and Republican nominee to win back the White House.

Trump Media, the parent company of Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social, saw its value balloon to nearly $10 billion following its stock market listing in March. The stock is popular among retail traders and is seen as a speculative bet on his chances of securing a second four-year term as president.

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Since its listing, Trump Media shares have been volatile, but the stock has soared as Trump’s odds of beating Harris climb and he closes the gap between himself and the Democratic nominee in the polls.

Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are shown on screen in the spin room during the second presidential debate at the Pennsylvania Convention Center in Philadelphia, on Sept. 10, 2024. (Hannah Beier/Bloomberg via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Since late July, traders on betting market PredictIt had favored Harris in the race against Trump until last week, when the former president took the lead on the platform. As of Monday, Trump’s odds of winning the race were at 54% on the site, to Harris’ 49%.

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On crypto-based prediction market PolyMarket, traders have seen Trump as more competitive over the past few months and showed the two candidates in a dead heat at the start of October, but Trump has since pulled away with a lead. As of Monday, PolyMarket bettors gave Trump a 54% chance of winning, and only a 46% chance for Harris.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Mohegan Sun Arena in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania on Aug. 17, 2024.  (JIM WATSON/AFP via Getty Images / Getty Images)

Recent polls indicate the race is tighter than the betting markets currently show, as Trump just erased Harris’ lead in the latest NBC News poll.

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The survey conducted Oct. 4-8 found Trump and Harris in a dead heat, with Trump and Harris each earning 48% from voters in a hypothetical one-on-one matchup. The outlet’s previous poll in September favored Harris over Trump, 49% to 44%.