Trump or Harris? One industry will win either way

Political gambling on the 2024 U.S. elections is expected to bring in a record volume of bets by this November even though it is not legal in the United States, industry experts tell Newsweek.

Bettors elsewhere can legally place wagers on U.S. politics and some Americans also find ways to bet on the offshore markets by concealing their locations, although Newsweek was unable to establish the scale of American money within the growing flow. Americans have also been able to take advantage of derivates contracts, something the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) plans to crack down on.

Gambling on elections in the U.S. has been illegal since federal regulations were enacted around the time of World War II on the grounds that it could influence ballots and undermine democracy. Before that, betting on elections had been big business.

Worldwide, the U.S. presidential election is still the biggest event for political gamblers, with former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris running pretty much neck and neck.

“The 2024 U.S. election is set to break all sorts of betting records,” said Sam Eaton, affiliate marketing director of Oddschecker, part of FairPlay Sports Media, which has between 10-11 million sessions each month with nearly a quarter of visits looking at political bets. Oddschecker does not take bets itself, but publishes odds from bookmakers—28 in the United Kingdom for example.

Eaton told Newsweek that in July the platform had already seen more users visit the U.S. election betting markets than those of other worldwide events—including the Super Bowl, European football championships, and the Masters golf tournament.

In 2020, over 600 million pounds (nearly $800 million at the time) was wagered on the U.S. election, according to the British gambling company Betfair. It predicts that more than 1 billion pounds will be bet by election day this year.

The biggest individual bet in 2020 was on Joe Biden winning, resulting in the bettor walking away with 1.54 million pounds (at the time worth $2 million) on a 1 million pound bet. Approximately 50 percent of the money wagered on the 2020 election on Betfair was placed in the final five days.

Trump’s odds shifted abrubtly after the attempt on his life, Eaton said, with his odds going as short as 1/4 (implying an 80 percent probability of a win) in the days afterward. But while Harris surpassed Trump as the most popular market bet and so far has accounted for 53 percent of wagers in August, he expects Trump to be the most popular bet overall from now until Election Day.

Harris’ ascendance as the Democratic nominee helped oddsmakers, he added. Not only will those who bet on Biden to be reelected have their bets counted as losses, but the bettors who bailed on Biden after the presidential debate now see Harris posing a major challenge to Trump—bringing in more money overall due to a close contest.

Tim Williams, director of public relations for BetUS, told Newsweek that Biden’s withdrawal led to a significant wave of new betting. BetUS is licensed in Mwali, part of the Union of the Comoros, a tiny archipelago off East Africa.

It began seeing such a rush of wagers and money coming in for Harris that odds quickly moved to a dead heat that same weekend, he said.

“It usually takes a significant amount of money to actually move the betting line, which shows that bettors are far more enthusiastic for Harris than they were for Biden,” Williams said. “Just one week after becoming the nominee, Harris had already attracted more wager tickets and more dollar volume than Trump—an incredible feat to accomplish in just one week.

“She has also been attracting larger wagers, which in the sports betting world is often indictive of ‘sharp money,’ meaning more professional bettors.”

BetUS has been in operation for over 30 years. Platform solvency relies little on politics, however, as traditional sports like football, baseball and basketball remain its mainstays.

While the privately held company doesn’t release dollar figures, it said it expected strong growth in political betting.

“We don’t see that trend stopping anytime soon,” Harris said. “I don’t believe that polarization results in more interest in political wagering, but close elections certainly do.

Dave Mason, spokesperson for BetOnline, said action took off during the Trump-Hillary Clinton matchup in 2016.

“The 2020 election then became the biggest day in our company’s history in terms of volume for a single event, surpassing even the Super Bowl that year—though recent Super Bowls have since eclipsed that record,” he told Newsweek. “We’re on pace to beat that record in 2024 now that Biden has bowed out.”

“I’d estimate we’ve yet to see 85-90 percent of the eventual total handle, as the majority of the action will come in October [or] November,” Mason said.

In the midst of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Harris’ stock rose and BetOnline offered “toss-up” odds for her and Trump at -110 (meaning a 54.2 percent probability) each. It basically implies that both candidates are viable and can be victorious.

BetOnline already has eight figures wagered on this election cycle, with an expectation for those numbers to triple or more between now and November 5 and easily eclipse all previous election betting records.

The bookmaker said that at this stage, a Trump victory would lead to a six-figure win for the company while a Harris victory would result in a “mid-to-high, five-figure loss.”

“Bettors have had many opportunities to hedge their positions, either to buy off a losing wager or guarantee a profit, so that certainly has cut into our margins,” Mason added.

Global sites such as Polymarket, self-described as the world’s largest prediction market, have various U.S. election bets available. Polymarket was pushed offshore in 2022 after a $1.4 million fine from the CFTC for operating as an unregulated exchange.

It had to ban U.S. users. However, tracking American bettors’ wages is difficult due to people skirting domestic regulations by masking locations through virtual private networks (VPNs) that hide IP addresses. Polymarket has not responded to Newsweek inquiries.

As of August 22, the platform showed more than $693 million bet on the presidential election outcome, with Trump favored to win by 52 percent with 46 percent for Harris.

Critics such as journalist John Stossel, who co-operates ElectionBettingOdds.com, which uses sites like New Zealand-based PredictIt and other foreign prediction markets for betting odds, argue that the proposed CFTC rule targeting betting or “gaming” markets would stifle innovation.

“It looks like we may lose markets that make our lives better,” Stossel told Newsweek. “Election betting doesn’t hurt anyone, and it often helps. It provides better predictions about the future than anything else. If people want to bet, just let them.”