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U.S. election impact on global travel and hotel performance

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U.S. election impact on global travel and hotel performance

American outbound travel was much stronger than anticipated across European markets this year, in part due to mega events such as the Summer Olympics and Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour. With the summer months past us, conversations are now swirling around how the U.S. presidential election will impact tourism outside of North America.

Less international travel is standard this time of year

There will be fewer Americans abroad this autumn and winter, which is entirely normal. U.S. schools resumed between mid-August to early-September with corporate conference season following swiftly thereafter. The U.S. holiday period starts soon, with Thanksgiving (28 November) typically meaning a week of break for schools, and Christmas, covering anywhere from two to six weeks of school breaks. Though these breaks are long enough for travel, most Americans opt to stay home to enjoy the holidays with family.

Short-term impact on the U.S., not much internationally

Federal elections in the United States are always the second Tuesday of November, while the Presidential Inauguration is held 20 January unless it falls on a Sunday. Because the last election-to-inauguration period (November 2020-January 2021) occurred during pandemic shutdowns, we look to the period between late-2016 and early-2017 for a better read on the impact.

Election and inauguration monthly hotel performance didn’t stand out from the six months pre- and post-event, but monthly performance changes were more volatile than the average of the other 10 months. Important to note in 2017, January outperformed due a favorable New Year’s Day calendar shift.

— Source: STR
— Source: STR

Monthly aggregates might smooth out more granular performance trends, though. At least in the U.S., group travel takes a dive during election week as voters stay home to hit the polls.

— Source: STR— Source: STR
— Source: STR

Weekly hotel performance data doesn’t reveal any major changes in year-over-year (YoY) percentage changes. There’s normal volatility and event shifts, but any decline in U.S. travel is small enough to be covered by other demand.

The U.S. capital, D.C., is a “hotbed” of group demand and highly reliant on government travel, thus there is a huge dip in hotel occupancy on election day and the prior week. However, we see a quick lift afterwards. New York City, one of the biggest and most in-demand U.S. markets, looks a touch soft for election day only.

— Source: STR— Source: STR
— Source: STR

Travel patterns

Data from Oxford Economics also shows that U.S. inbound travel continues to rise YoY during election years.

— Source: STR— Source: STR
— Source: STR

Keep in mind, that there are some outliers in the above chart:

  • France: Inbound arrivals and 10-month occ average declined YoY due to terror attacks in November 2015.
  • Czech Republic: Inbound U.S. travel was unusually high in 2015 (potentially Ice Hockey Championships) and 2016 is an offset.
  • Italy has increasingly become a popular tourist destination over the last few years.

2024 election impact on U.S. hotel bookings

While outbound American travel doesn’t seem to be impacted by the election, U.S. hotel bookings are showing an impact, as shown in STR’s Forward STAR data.

— Source: STR— Source: STR
— Source: STR

Conclusion

The United States election remains a popular talking point, but despite all the fervor around the topic, there are likely limited impacts to travel plans and hotel performance indicators.

*Analysis by Kelsey Fenerty. 

About CoStar Group, Inc.

CoStar Group (NASDAQ: CSGP) is a leading provider of online real estate marketplaces, information, and analytics in the property markets. Founded in 1987, CoStar Group conducts expansive, ongoing research to produce and maintain the largest and most comprehensive database of real estate information. CoStar is the global leader in commercial real estate information, analytics, and news, enabling clients to analyze, interpret and gain unmatched insight on property values, market conditions and availabilities. Apartments.com is the leading online marketplace for renters seeking great apartment homes, providing property managers and owners a proven platform for marketing their properties. LoopNet is the most heavily trafficked online commercial real estate marketplace with over twelve million monthly global unique visitors. STR provides premium data benchmarking, analytics, and marketplace insights for the global hospitality industry. Ten-X offers a leading platform for conducting commercial real estate online auctions and negotiated bids. Homes.com is the fastest growing online residential marketplace that connects agents, buyers, and sellers. OnTheMarket is a leading residential property portal in the United Kingdom. BureauxLocaux is one of the largest specialized property portals for buying and leasing commercial real estate in France. Business Immo is France’s leading commercial real estate news service. Thomas Daily is Germany’s largest online data pool in the real estate industry. Belbex is the premier source of commercial space available to let and for sale in Spain. CoStar Group’s websites attracted over 183 million monthly average unique visitors in the second quarter of 2024. Headquartered in Washington, DC, CoStar Group maintains offices throughout the U.S., Europe, Canada, and Asia. From time to time, we plan to utilize our corporate website, CoStarGroup.com, as a channel of distribution for material company information. For more information, visit CoStarGroup.com.

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