UFC 309 Gambling Preview: Can Stipe Miocic pull off the upset against Jon Jones?

UFC 309 goes down this Saturday at Madison Square Garden in New York City with the long-awaited heavyweight title fight between Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic taking center stage. On top of that, there are 12 other fights this weekend so let’s dive into the best bets for this pay-per-view event.

All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Single Plays

Michael Chandler (+210)

There are plenty of reasons not to back Chandler in his co-main event fight with Charles Oliveira. He hasn’t fought in two years, Oliveira won the first bout, and Oliveira is coming off a very good performance against Armen Tsarukyan. Nevertheless, I’m backing Chandler this time around, primarily because the odds are pretty big.

In their first fight, Chandler was razor close to winning the vacant lightweight title. He hurt Oliveira badly and simply couldn’t finish the job. Maybe something similar happens this time around, but Chandler still has that explosive power and Oliveira is still extremely hittable. If Chandler has learned anything from their first fight, this is a coin-flip matchup so the value is there.

Chris Weidman (-102)

As with the Chandler fight, there are plenty of reasons not to believe in Weidman this weekend. He’s lost four of his past six fights, had that catastrophic injury, and he looks very clearly washed. But here’s the thing, Eryk Anders is also.

Anders has lost three of his past five and does not appear to have anything close to his best anymore. On top of that, Anders’s best wasn’t in the same ballpark as Weidman’s. Weidman should be able to compete on the feet with Anders and score takedowns as necessary and grind out a win.

Jim Miller (+136)

Miller takes on Damon Jackson in a prelim bout that has the potential to steal the show on Saturday. Miller is definitely past his prime but the all-time leader in UFC bouts and wins is still extremely game and while Jackson is a fun scrapper, he appears to have hit a cliff in his career. These two are going to come out and scrap and Miller is just a little more polished in all phases, so I like him to get the win.

Photo by Chris Graythen/Getty Images

Prop Bets

Jon Jones by KO/TKO or Submission (-250)

I wrote a big breakdown of Saturday’s main event that you can go read but the short version is this: Miocic is 42, hasn’t fought in three years, hasn’t won in four, and even at his best was probably not going to do well against Jon Jones. Jones also is past his prime but less so than Miocic and he should dominate this fight from the opening bell.

Bo Nickal by KO/TKO (-130)

Nickal faces Paul Craig in the featured bout of the pay-per-view and it should be a massacre. I love Craig but we know who he is at this point and if you don’t get sucked into a submission, you’re going to beat him. All-Universe grappler Gordon Ryan struggled to submit Nickal, so I don’t think Craig will have much luck. Instead, Nickal will show off the power in his hands and thump Craig up on the feet. Given how big Nickal is straight up, this line has huge value in it.

Photo By Stephen McCarthy/Sportsfile via Getty Images

Bonus Bet

Jake Paul (-205)

On Friday night, a day before the UFC action even goes down, Paul faces Mike Tyson in an eight-round boxing match that may well be the biggest combat sports event of all time. It’s also could be one of the saddest.

Tyson is 58 years old and while he looks great for being almost a senior citizen, he’s still 58. 58-year-olds wear orthotic shoes and go to bed at 7 p.m., they don’t fist fight men 30 years younger than them.

This “fight” has all the trappings of Floyd Mayweather vs. Conor McGregor, where the casual audience really believes Tyson is going to pull it off and the hardcore fanbase knows better. Father Time is undefeated and Tyson is going to lose, either by knockout or, hopefully, a tepid decision where Paul carries him.

Wrap Up

This is a very weird weekend of fights that probably don’t need to happen and feature a lot of old dudes. Still, they’re all certainly interesting. Hopefully they’re profitable, too.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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