UFC Abu Dhabi gambling preview: Can Umar Nurmagomedov live up to the family name against Cory Sandhagen?

This Saturday, UFC returns to Abu Dhabi with a stacked fight card, headlined by a bantamweight matchup between Cody Sandhagen and Umar Nurmagomedov. While a title shot has not been guaranteed, the winner figures to have the inside track to facing the winner of UFC 306’s title fight between Sean O’Malley and Merab Dvalishvili.

The rest of the card is no less enticing as there are a number of other marquee matchups with big implications, so let’s dive into the best bets for this weekend. Plus, we’ll even throw in a little boxing action, just for fun.

As always, all odds are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Straight Bets

Marlon Vera (+120)

“Chito” takes on former flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo in the featured main card bout that may actually be the best fight of the weekend. Since bumping up to bantamweight, “Figgy Smalls’’ has been electric, but “Chito” figures to be his toughest test by far.

Vera is one of the most durable fighters in the UFC and extremely offensively potent. That’s a winning combination against all but the best fighters, and should be difficult for Figueiredo to navigate. Like Vera, Figueiredo is a low-volume fighter, relying on his finishing ability to win fights suddenly, but against a guy who can’t be finished, that’s a big hill to climb. Getting Vera at underdog odds is terrific value.

Michal Oleksiejczuk (+195)

Oleksiejczuk faces Shara Magomedov in the co-main event of the evening, and while he should be an underdog, he shouldn’t be this big of one. “Bullet” entered UFC with outsized hype relative to his ability, and though he’s 2-0 in the promotion thus far, both wins have been underwhelming. Now he faces a guy in Oleksiejczuk who is as rough-and-tumble as they come. Oleksiejczuk is going to put Shara in a fight right from the outset, and given that the Polish fighter hasn’t be knocked out in a decade, I think he has a decent shot at simply overwhelming Magomedov.

Loopy Godinez (-102)

Godinez takes on Mackenzie Dern in a main card bout, and I think it’s finally time I gave up the Dern dream. For years I’ve been on the island saying, “One of these days she’ll put it together and it’s curtains for the rest of the strawweights,” and for years I’ve been disappointed. Sometimes you have to let go of your dreams to make room for something new.

Dern has the ability to win this fight, because she has the ability to win every fight. She’s so vastly superior to everyone on the ground that if it goes there, she can win. But she’s never developed the tools to get fights there, and now even if she does, Dern doesn’t punish opponents on the floor. It’s an all-or-nothing proposition for her submissions. When she doesn’t find one, the round ends and she’s back to square one.

Godinez is the better striker and a very good wrestler. She can keep this standing and win in straightforward fashion, and that’s what I’m guessing happens.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Prop Bets

Umar Nurmagomedov to Win by Any Knockout, Submission, or DQ (+180)

My boldest prediction of the evening. I think Cory Sandhagen is the most difficult fight for Nurmagomedov at bantamweight. And I think he delivers the breakout performance of his career.

Sandhagen is a great all-around fighter and the superior striker by a good margin, but Nurmagomedov can compete on the feet and has a massive edge in the wrestling and grappling. That’s not to say Sandhagen is bad, Nurmagomedov is just that good. He’s the spiritual successor to Khabib (Islam Makhachev is the literal successor and a very different kind of fighter), and I think Saturday is a coronation of sorts.

Michael Chiesa to Win by Any Knockout, Submission, or DQ (+100)

There is not a kind way to put this: Tony Ferguson should not be competing anymore.

Yes, Chiesa is on a three-fight losing streak. Ferguson’s is SEVEN. Ferguson has not won a fight in FIVE years. Worse yet, he looks old, worn, and washed every time out. Ferguson was never a great defensive wrestler, and now Old Tony has to fight a man much bigger than him who can wrestle. This is going to be a carbon copy of the Beneil Dariush fight, except I think Chiesa finishes the fight, and hopefully Ferguson’s career. I don’t want to see him keep taking damage like this for no reason.

Photo by Mark Robinson/Matchroom Boxing/Getty Images

Parlay of the Week

I thought we’d mix it up this week and do a boxing parlay as there’s a very solid fight card going down Saturday evening in Los Angeles, headlined by Terence Crawford challenging Israil Madrimov for the WBA super welterweight title.

Terence Crawford (-700)

Crawford is, at worst, the third-best boxer in the world right now, and many people believe he’s No. 1. It’s me. I’m one of those people. Crawford can simply do everything in the boxing ring. While Madrimov is a very good fighter, he’s not at Crawford’s level, and I’m not even sure he’ll be much bigger than “Bud” come fight night.

Andy Ruiz (-300)

Man, who doesn’t love Andy Ruiz? A former unified world champion when he iced Anthony Joshua, Ruiz has been out of action for nearly two years due to a torn rotator cuff but he’s back now and this matchup with Jarrell Miller is a good one to test him without being too big of a risk.

Jared Anderson (-190)

Dubbed the future of American heavyweight boxing, Anderson has massive expectations on his very broad shoulders, but thus far has proven equal to them. Martin Bakole is exactly the sort of test you want to see for a prospect like this — a guy who packs a wallop but tends to fade down the stretch and is certainly not the athlete Anderson is. The bet here is that Anderson can mitigate Bakole’s early power advantages and win down the stretch.

Parlay these three bets together for +132 odds.

Wrap Up

Tough week last weekend. UFC 304 was not kind to us. Hopefully UFC Abu Dhabi is a little more gentle, though with this many underdog plays, we’ll see.

Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!

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