The United Nations is predicting the world’s population will reach 10.3 billion in the 2080s.
The prediction appears in a new U.N. report. The report also suggests that the population will then slightly decrease to about 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
John Wilmoth is head of the U.N. Population Division, which prepared the report. He told The Associated Press (AP) that there is a high probability that the world’s population will reach its height, or peak, within the current century. He said the probability of that happening is about 80 percent. Wilmoth described that estimate as “a major change” compared to predictions from 10 years ago. At that time, the estimated probability was about 30 percent.
U.N. Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Navid Hanif recently spoke about the report at a briefing. He said the expectation that the world’s population in 2100 will be lower than previously thought has “important policy implications for the sustainability of our planet.”
The world’s population has continued to grow during the past 75 years, from an estimated 2.6 billion in 1950 to 8 billion in November 2022. Since then, it has increased about 2.5 percent to 8.2 billion.
The report notes the population has already peaked in 63 countries and territories. These include China, Germany, Japan and Russia. Within this grouping, the total population is estimated to drop 14 percent over the next 30 years.
In another 48 countries and territories, the population is predicted to peak between 2025 and 2054. Those countries include Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam.
For the remaining 126 countries and territories, the population is expected to increase through 2054. The countries in this grouping include the United States, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan. The report said these areas would see their populations peak in the second half of the century or later.
For nine of these nations, the U.N. estimates the populations will double between 2024 and 2054.
Wilmoth said these differences are notable. But he said, “it’s important to understand that all populations are following a similar path.”
The U.N. report suggests the earlier population peak is predicted for several reasons. These include lower fertility levels in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China. Estimates for China suggest the country’s population will drop sharply, from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million in 2100.
The report noted that worldwide, women are having an average of one less child than they did in 1990. In addition, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 in over half of all countries and territories. This is a level experts have identified as being necessary for a country’s population to keep its size without migration.
Wilmoth said the report shows that nearly 20 percent of the world has “ultra-low” fertility, with women having fewer than 1.5 live births. In China, the current number is about one birth per woman.
I’m Bryan Lynn.
The Associated Press reported this story. Bryan Lynn adapted the report for VOA Learning English.
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Words in This Story
implication – n. a result or effect that seems likely in the future
sustainability – n. the quality of causing little or no damage to the environment and therefore able to continue for a long time
fertility – n. the quality of being able to produce young
