United States vs. Panama odds, preview & picks for 2024 Copa America group stage

The 2024 Copa America group stage continues as the United States takes on Panama on Thursday in the second of three Group C matches.

The Star and Stripes won its opening match against Bolivia 2-0 and will still be inspired by their 1-1 draw with Brazil in their final warm-up before the tournament. Panama, meanwhile, lost its first match 3-1 against Uruguay, who is third in odds to win the competition.

Below, we will share our favorite betting picks and odds for the USMNT vs. Panama at 2024 Copa America:

The USA can essentially book its ticket into the knockout round and likely secure a top-two finish in Group C with a win Thursday, all before having to play group favorite Uruguay. The USMNT is -1450 to advance to the next round and -290 to win the match against Panama.

The USMNT struggled mightily in a 5-1 loss just a couple of weeks before the competition began, but the bounce-back against Brazil clearly focused the squad. They dominated Bolivia by maintaining 60.7% possession and taking 20 shots on goal to their opponent’s six.  

Panama found itself 3-0 down to the Uruguayans after 93 minutes before Michael Murillo netted a consolation goal near the end of play. They were the inferior team on the pitch and conceded 54.7% possession and 20 shot attempts to their 10.

As vulnerable as they looked in that match and during most of their pre-tournament outings, they beat the USA 1-1 (5-4) on penalty kicks during the CONCACAF Gold Cup last July. The win didn’t come from luck either, as they went toe-to-toe with and outperformed the red, white and blue.

Should the USMNT win? Yes, they should. But they aren’t the most consistent team in the world and showed the cracks in their armor when they met Panama a year ago (and in their warmups against Colombia).

The matches at the Copa America thus far have been emotional and full of rage. Every 90 minutes feels like a battle in a long war between nations in pursuit of the same goal. 

The USMNT, while physical, is not a team that continually comes in and delivers every time it’s needed, especially under manager Gregg Berhalter. There’s also the matter of Panama’s willingness to sit back with five defenders and their need to secure at least one point to maintain a reasonable chance to advance in the competition.

This feels like a low-scoring match and one that we believe could end in a frustrating result for the USA.

A watered-down version of the “draw” prediction is less than 2.5 total goals in the match. 

The USA showed some brilliant pieces of attacking play against Bolivia, but that was an opponent that was much more willing to abandon its defensive structure than Panama. On the bright side, their defense has been fairly consistent, aside from the drumming by Colombia.

Again, the USA should be able to pull this out based on quality of club, but if they do, we don’t expect it to be by much. Plus, four of their six matches in 2024 finished under this total.

Pulisic is the best player and captain of his team. He had six shots on target across his last two matches (four against Brazil and two against Bolivia) and will be crucial in his team’s attempts to break down the Panamanian defense.

Weah registered a shot on target against Bolivia, two against Brazil, and one against Colombia, putting him at the forefront of the USA attack. He’s a wide player that will cut inside to help create and, like Pulisic, will be needed to open up a Panama back line consisting of five defenders.

If we’re to expect this to be a low-scoring game that has the potential to end in a draw, giving the underdogs two goals of wiggle room works both from a value and logistical perspective.

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