Urgency Index: How much does each team NEED to win the World Series?

You could practically hear the exhale from Rangers fans in that magic moment last fall when the final strike — a strike that had famously proved elusive in the 2011 Fall Classic — crossed the plate and Texas secured a franchise-first World Series title.

Those 2023 Rangers did as intended, delivering a crown that was made all the more meaningful by the decades-long drought that preceded it.

Moments like that are why we crunch the numbers and come up with the Urgency Index (UI) each year at this time.

The UI is where we rate — on a scale of 1 (least urgent) to 10 (most urgent) — how important a World Series title would be to a particular club. We take factors like aging curves, pending free agents and franchise history into account with this incredibly sound, scientific method that ranks the clubs’ situations from the most to least urgent. (We’re including every club still mathematically alive for a postseason spot.)

So let’s urgently get to the list!

Yankees
UI: 10, or how many months it’s been since the Yanks began their Juan Soto rental

With an uncharacteristic 15-year drought since not only the Yankees’ last World Series title but also their last World Series appearance, everything is heightened here. Especially with Soto nearing what could be a record-breaking free agency. New York is deeply oriented around the performances of Soto, the 32-year-old Aaron Judge and the 34-year-old Gerrit Cole, whose injury scare earlier this year was a reminder of the toll of nearly 2,000 career innings. Whether or not the Yankees wind up re-signing Soto, they are overdue for a ring, given their richness in resources.

Padres
UI: 9, or how many prospects the Padres dealt at this year’s Trade Deadline

After another round of AJ Preller trades, you are the Padres’ top prospect. Congratulations! OK, so it’s actually catcher Ethan Salas, who is 18 years old, and what’s left in San Diego’s prospect stash is dominated by teenagers. Ever since inking Manny Machado prior to 2019, Padres ownership has been punching above its weight in terms of roster investment, and Preller has constantly swung big in the trade market to try to find the right mix. All it has really amounted to, so far, is a National League Championship Series appearance in ‘22. But even after last winter’s Soto swap, these Padres have as good a chance as ever to bring San Diego its first World Series appearance since 1998 and the first title in franchise history.

Guardians
UI: 9, because this is Cleveland’s ninth postseason appearance this century with no titles yet

Though there is enough young talent here (including 39-year-old manager Stephen Vogt!) to not make this a true 10 on our scale, it’s pretty close. It’s not just because Cleveland has the longest active championship drought of any team in MLB (the club’s last championship, in 1948, predates the Commissioner’s Trophy, for crying out loud), though that’s obviously a big reason. It’s also franchise icon José Ramírez creeping up toward his mid-30s and a heavy reliance on the bullpen when we know performance from that area can be super volatile from year to year. Relief linchpins Emmanuel Clase, Cade Smith, Hunter Gaddis and Tim Herrin all have more than 70 appearances this season, so there could be after-effects next year.

Phillies
UI: 8 1/2, or how many innings had transpired in 2023 NLCS Game 3 before the D-backs changed everything

The Phils lost the World Series in 2022. They let the ‘23 NLCS against the D-backs slip away. Bryce Harper has never won it all, and he’s one of five 30-something regulars in the lineup. Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola are in their 30s and have accumulated a lot of innings in recent years. Owner John Middleton and president Dave Dombrowski have done everything in their power to put the Fightins in position to win it all. Now, they just have to actually do it.

Brewers
UI: 8, or how many times the Brewers have reached the playoffs without advancing to the World Series

Last year, I put the Brewers’ UI at 10, because it looked like manager Craig Counsell was on his way out and it would be hard to keep Corbin Burnes, and … well … that’s how dumb I am. Turns out, the Brew Crew didn’t need Counsell, Burnes or Brandon Woodruff to go on another NL Central title run. Of course, because the Brewers have never won a World Series, have not won a pennant since 1982 and have star shortstop Willy Adames approaching free agency, the UI remains high here. But there’s so much young talent and organizational pedigree here that I’ll stop short of putting it at 10 again.

Royals
UI: 7, aka Bobby Witt Jr.’s jersey number

The Royals are “only” nine years removed from their last World Series title (no small achievement in a market this size) and have the wonderful Witt locked in through at least 2030. But their reliance on a strong starting staff that includes two 30-somethings in Seth Lugo and pending free agent Michael Wacha, as well as a 34-year-old catcher in Salvador Perez, gives them a higher-than-average UI. The Royals were aggressive this year in part because of their desire to get a new stadium deal done, and a deep playoff run would of course only aid the cause.

D-backs
UI: 6, because this would be Arizona’s sixth postseason appearance since the 2001 World Series

The Snakes have graduated from the fun and frisky group that shocked the world in 2023 to move into the Land of Expectations. They’ve had a rollercoaster year after an aggressive offseason, can only get in as Wild Cards again and have enough young talent to keep them from one of the top spots on this list. But the bottom line is that anything short of another Fall Classic entry will be viewed as a disappointment, and Christian Walker’s upcoming free agency is not a small concern.

Dodgers
UI: 5, or how many times, in their ongoing streak of playoff appearances dating back to 2013, that the Dodgers did not advance past the Division Series

The Dodgers always emit dual sensations when trying to determine their UI. On the one hand, they are very clearly a “World Series or bust” club, especially after a $1.2 billion offseason. People will crush them (per usual) if they don’t go all the way. On the other hand, they also are very clearly going to be in the playoffs every year for the rest of our natural born lives. Ultimately, where you put them on your personal UI comes down to your opinion on the value of the 2020 COVID tournament title. Probably safest to just put the Dodgers right down the middle.

Orioles
UI: 4, for a team looking for its fourth World Series title

Their quick ouster from October last year, the 41-year absence from the World Series and the pending free agencies of Corbin Burnes and the underrated Anthony Santander all up the urgency for the O’s. That said, they do have one of the youngest position player groups in MLB and maintain a top-three farm system, even after a bunch of recent graduations from the group. The new ownership group seemingly increases the odds of the Orioles keeping their core together and supporting it, so we won’t go too crazy here.

Astros
UI: 3.28, or the Astros’ average number of wins within their seven straight ALCS appearances

Alex Bregman is about to be a free agent, and the increasing costs of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Framber Valdez and Kyle Tucker complicate club construction. But with a record number of consecutive ALCS appearances and two World Series titles (or at least, one that doesn’t cause people to yell at you on the internet if you mention it), there is very little left to prove in this era of the Astros.

Mets
UI: 3, or roughly how many months into the season the 2024 Mets were still under .500

Sure, the Mets haven’t been to the World Series in almost a decade and haven’t won it in almost four. But wasn’t this supposed to be a bridge year for the Metropolitans? A brief break between owner Steve Cohen’s mega splurges while chief mechanic David Stearns had a chance to assess what’s under the hood? In that vein, that they can go on a playoff run anyway should be viewed as a nice bonus, though it would obviously be nice to make some October magic with Pete Alonso before the Polar Bear becomes a free agent.

Braves
UI: 2, or how many games the Braves had Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider on the same lineup card

The Braves won it all three years ago, much of their core is locked up for the foreseeable future and the litany of injuries they’ve endured this year tamps down expectations for October. Sure, Max Fried’s pending free agency and Chris Sale’s age and injury history are factors to consider in the urgency calculation, but this one still feels like it ought to be lower than most.

Tigers
UI: 0.5, or the Tigers’ percentage chance (per FanGraphs) of reaching the postseason as of Aug. 1

No one expected the Tigers to be in position to make the playoffs. The Tigers definitely didn’t expect it, otherwise they wouldn’t have been sellers at the Trade Deadline. With this heroic home stretch, Detroit has bought goodwill from a patient fan base and should be in a good position to be aggressive in supporting this predominantly young team this offseason. For now, this is the definition of house money.