USA Olympic Basketball Preview, Analysis, & Best Bets

Exhibition season is over, and now teams are playing for the ultimate prize. The odds suggest that it’s the USA’s gold medal to lose, but they will not get it playing like they did in exhibition play. Let’s dive into my USA Olympic Basketball preview analysis, and best bets.

The games are set to begin July 27th, with four games slated, all groups A and B. According to the odds, Canada, France, and the USA are the top teams in each group. Canada has the toughest draw, in my eyes, while France and the USA are a little less stressful. We will run through a few teams to extract some value and hopefully cash some tickets.

CHECK OUT THE SPORTS GAMBLING PODCAST’S DAILY BEST BETS

USA Olympic Basketball Preview, Analysis, & Best Bets

Is The Gold Medal USA’s To Lose?

As mentioned at the top, they will not get it performing at the same level as the past few weeks. It is a huge task to throw players together and expect continuity to be high, even if those players are the “best” in the world. There was one bright spot for them; luckily, it was against a team in their Group, Serbia. Outside of that, the team has been fairly underwhelming despite not having a loss in exhibition play.

Everyone’s biggest question is why they have been underwhelming. The easy answer is that they are in cruise control and did not want to show much.

However, we do not take the easy route here, so I believe it is a combination of bad rotations and not properly respecting the opponent. As for the rotations, Kerr was critical of himself numerous times. To his credit, not having Kevin Durant or Kawhi Leonard may have slightly altered his game plans.

Does that make the results inexcusable? No, but those two players are critical and would have been matchup nightmares for opponents. Durant is back practicing and should be able to play in their opener. His ability to stretch the floor and rim protect adds yet another dynamic to the team. Assuming Kerr tweaks the lineup and we see more of Anthony Davis and less of Joel Embiid, they will be fine.

Respecting their opponent has a lot to do with their results as well. I felt they thought they could just walk on the court and dominate. These countries have high continuity, which the US does not, and that can’t be understated. With everything behind them and knowing the level they have to get to, I expect them to play at a high level and dominate.

If Not USA, Then Who?

The popular choice is going to be France. They are the host and have one of the rising superstars in Victor Wembanyama, anchoring their team. Between Victor and Rudy Gobert, France will be one of the best defensive teams regardless of group. The biggest issue is their guard play, which is fairly weak unless Bilal Coulibaly takes a step. That is why we will turn our attention to a guard-heavy, deep Canadian team.

Canada is filled with NBA players and, more importantly, one of the best guards in the world, Shai-Gilgeous Alexander. As someone who values guard play over everything, if anyone can upset the US, it is Canada.

Along with SGA, they have numerous on-ball defenders like Lu Dort, Dillion Brooks, and, to a lesser extent, RJ Barrett. The missing piece preventing them from being in an even more favorable spot Is a 7’4 monster who happens to be in Memphis and not Paris.

They played the US tough in the first half of the exhibition before getting pummeled in the second half. The size took over, which is the biggest concern, but the Canadian guards underperformed.

They are not going to grow overnight, so the key will be spacing the floor and running in transition. I don’t think anyone can challenge them in their group. Outside of limiting Giannis, nothing scares me there. So, I think there is some good value on -170 to win the group.

Best Of The Rest – Darkhorse

Anyone outside of the three aforementioned teams would be considered a longshot. Giannis and Greece are intriguing at +20000 but they just do not have enough outside of him. They also are in the toughest group which does not help, so we will pass there.

Where we land is with Germany. They are around +30000 to win the Gold and +175 to win the group. The talent was on full display when they nearly beat the US a few days ago. They have a nice mix of positional size, and a lead guard, Dennis Schroder, has been exceptional in Olympic play.

The shooting is a bit of a concern but their ability to defend and get to the rim can help that. The Wagner brothers are effective and efficient in the pick and roll, so if Schroder can knock down some open shots, they will be a tough out for anyone.

There are multiple ways to profit from Germany. Obviously, the biggest payout will be to win the gold, but we can still profit without that. I’m looking at the +260 to Medal. The top three are obviously the favorites, but all we need is for one of those to slip.

Outside of the US. and Canada, I like Germany against anyone else. Not having to win and still making money is the American dream, or if not, it should be. We can still root for our country and make money at the same time. Go, Germany!

Best Bet: Germany To Medal – +260