Von der Leyen, Meloni and the battle for Brussels’ top jobs: What’s next?

What are the next steps? 

The three main political groups’ lead negotiators are in constant talks about locking in the current top jobs package when EU leaders meet next week. Ahead of that meeting, the negotiators have penciled in a video call, two officials briefed on the negotiations said. 

Then the ball will be in the court of the European Parliament, which is set to vote on the next European Commission president in mid-July. This scenario avoids a summer of political uncertainty at the EU’s highest level while Russia continues to wage war in Ukraine and with a looming U.S. election in November, diplomats stressed. 

Will von der Leyen get through the European Parliament?

The European Parliament, the second hoop for von der Leyen to jump through, is also still far from a done deal. The coalition of the EPP, socialists and liberals risks being too small to get von der Leyen the required 361 votes (out of 720), as some experts reckon about 10 percent of MEPs within those ranks are unlikely to vote for her. That coalition has about 400 MEPs. The EPP’s recent “greedy and arrogant behavior” could lead to more leakage of votes from the socialists, another EU official said.

In the European Parliament, it’s one strike and you’re out. If von der Leyen fails, it’s up to the European Council to suggest an alternative candidate to become European Commission president. That risks leading to an institutional crisis, diplomats warned. 

“It’s a high gamble” if von der Leyen fails, said Russack. “It would be quite damaging for the reputation of the EU institutions and it will delay things terribly … then the whole shebang starts from scratch.” 

One diplomat suggested if von der Leyen’s appointment is not approved, the rest of the top jobs puzzle could be in jeopardy. The gender and nationality of an alternate candidate might throw off the current balance that von der Leyen strikes with Costa and Kallas.