War analysts say the massive Iranian missile attack the US called ‘ineffective’ likely wasn’t just for show

• Iran launched a massive ballistic missile strike on Israel yesterday.
• War analysts suggest the attack was likely intended to overwhelm air defenses and damage specific military targets.
• The US and Israel said the missiles were mostly intercepted and that the attack was “defeated and ineffective.”

Iran’s strike on Israel on Tuesday with over 180 ballistic missiles was a massive attack, what appears to be the largest single ballistic missile barrage in history.

The attack was largely ineffective, US and Israeli officials said, but conflict experts say it wasn’t just for show. Iran’s intention appeared to be to cause significant damage by overwhelming Israeli and partner air defenses.

War analysts with the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington DC-based think tank that closely tracks conflicts, reported on Tuesday that “Iran likely intended to inflict significant damage on Israel by oversaturating Israeli air defenses, particularly in central Israel.”

The missile attack, which came in response to the killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah last Friday and the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in July, appeared to be focused on several military and government targets in the country, some of which were located near or in densely populated central Israel.

The ISW analysts wrote that all of the missiles, of which there were many, that were aimed at this area would need to be intercepted by the Israel Defense Forces.

That apparent targeting focus and the number of ballistic missiles used indicates that Tuesday’s Iranian strike “may have been designed to overwhelm the Israeli Arrow ballistic missile defense system by saturating it with large numbers of systems in relatively small and densely populated areas,” ISW said.

The conflict analysts said the available evidence suggests Iran was going beyond just a show of force in its Tuesday strike.

Despite this, the attack was reportedly largely repelled by Israeli air defenses, as well as assets from the US and its allies and partners. While details on the casualties and damage to Israeli targets are still unknown, the IDF said Tuesday that the “majority” of ballistic missiles were intercepted, though there were some impacts in areas in central and southern Israel.

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also said Tuesday the attack was “defeated and ineffective.” Vice President Kamala Harris said that while “we are still assessing the impact, but initial indications are that Israel, with our assistance, was able to defeat this attack.” She said “our joint defenses have been effective.”

Iran’s April strike, too, also appeared designed to test the effectiveness of Israel’s air defenses, such as Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow 2 and 3, but Israel was able to fend off that unprecedented attack with its complex air-defense network and support from partner nations.

April’s strike focused on Israeli positions in northern and southern Israel and included around 120 ballistic missiles, 170 attack drones, and 30 cruise missiles. It was the first-ever direct attack on Israel from Iranian soil and came in retaliation for an Israeli airstrike on an Iranian diplomatic facility in Syria earlier that month, which killed several military officials.