Washington Wizards 2024-25 season preview: A lottery team with a long rebuild ahead

The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We’re breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!

WASHINGTON WIZARDS

2023-24 finish

Offseason moves

• Additions: Alexandre Sarr, Bub Carrington, Kyshawn George, Jonas Valančiūnas, Malcolm Brogdon, Saddiq Bey

• Subtractions: Deni Avdija, Tyus Jones, Landry Shamet, Eugene Omoruyi, Jules Bernard, Hamidou Diallo

• Complete roster

The Big Question: How long will it take to go from “deconstruction” to “reconstruction?”

Any mystery about the direction of the Wizards was gone after new team president Michael Winger and new general manager Will Dawkins spent their first months on the job jettisoning Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porziņġis in exchange for veterans on short-term contracts, future draft picks, 19-year-old French lottery ticket Bilal Coulibaly and erstwhile Warrior Jordan Poole.

That direction: down, as cheaply and quickly as possible.

Poole endured a brutally memeable and joyless season, replete with look-away lowlights and attempted saucings gone awry. Things went better for Kyle Kuzma, who put up numbers; Avdija, who played career-best all-around ball; and Jones, who remained every ounce the high-floor caretaker as a starter that he was as a backup in Memphis.

And none of that mattered. Like, not even a little bit.

Washington sank like a stone, posting its worst net rating in at least two decades and the worst record in franchise history — which, when you consider the history of this franchise, is saying something. (A mind-blowing stat from NBA.com’s John Schuhmann: The Wizards became the first team in the last 39 seasons to go winless in the second game of back-to-backs, losing all 13 of them.) Coach Wes Unseld Jr. took the fall, “transitioned” into a “front-office role” for a few months before assistant-turned-interim head coach Brian Keefe got the full-time gig — and, with it, a short-term outlook that still looks awfully gnarly.

The 2023-24 Wizards’ top three finishers in value over replacement player — Jones, Avdija and Daniel Gafford, dealt midseason to Dallas — will all ply their trade elsewhere. Veteran guard Brogdon, imported from Portland in the Avdija deal, is already hurt, having torn a ligament in the thumb on his shooting hand. The Wiz signed Bey knowing that he’d miss most of this season rehabilitating a torn ACL — a potential upside play, but not one with much immediate value.

That’s kind of the vibe on this entire roster. Between Coulibaly, Sarr, Carrington and George, the Wizards will likely give real rotation minutes to four players aged 20 or younger. All offer some intrigue — Coulibaly as a feisty perimeter defender, Sarr mixing pick-and-pop 3-pointers with hard rim-runs while blocking shots and defending in space, Carrington as an attention-grabbing shot-creator, etc. — but you can’t really expect much more than “intrigue” from such young prospects.

Beyond that quartet, only three Wizards are owed guaranteed money beyond 2025-26. There’s Poole, who’s a good bet to stay put, given the three years and $95.5 million remaining on his contract. There’s Bey, who’s scheduled to make less than 4% of the salary cap in ’26-27. And there’s Kuzma, who famously declined the opportunity to join the Mavericks at last February’s trade deadline, and who — as a 6-foot-9 forward who can score and rebound, and whose contract declines over time — is keenly aware he’ll continue hearing his name come up. (As Kuzma recently put it to Josh Robbins of The Athletic: “I’ve been in trade rumors for eight years. This is my eighth year in the NBA.”)

The rest of the Wizards’ vets — Brogdon, Marvin Bagley III, Richaun Holmes (whose two-year, $25.9 million deal has just a $250,000 guarantee for next season, effectively turning the center into a $12.6 million trade exception) — are short-timers, as likely to be flipped for whatever draft pick isn’t nailed down as to stick in D.C. Even Valančiūnas — whose size, rebounding and ability to take the pounding of playing the 5 have real value for a team looking to ease Sarr’s acclimation to the NBA — is priced to move on a sub-midlevel contract with an unguaranteed final season.

It all feels very threadbare, temporary — an unsightly house nearly finished being stripped down to the studs before contractors can start building off of the new blueprint.

“If we’re really to think about it — the phases of the rebuild — there’s the deconstruction phase. There’s the laying-the-foundation phase. There’s the building it back up, and then there’s fortifying what you build,” Dawkins told reporters on media day. “We’re still focused on deconstructing and laying that foundation.”

Translation: If anyone offers us anything for any of our non-rookie-scale dudes — including sharpshooter Corey Kispert, set for restricted free agency after the season — we’re probably going to take it. Let the not-old-enough-to-drink collective take its lumps, and let the chips — and lottery ping-pong balls — fall where they may.

Everyone knew Washington needed to rebuild, and would feel plenty of pain in the process. Knowing something and actually feeling it, though, are two very, very different things.

“I think that’s important to remind everyone,” Dawkins said on media day, “that we’re still early [in the process].”

Translation: This season’s gonna hurt, too.

Best-case scenario

Sarr, Coulibaly, Carrington and George all show signs of being legitimate NBA rotation players sooner rather than later … but don’t do so in dramatic enough fashion to, y’know, win a bunch of games. Winger and Dawkins are able to find draft-compensation-rich takers for several of the Wizards’ vets, reloading Washington’s pick coffers and giving the front office more flexibility to pursue roster-reshaping trades that can add talent on the same timeline as its bright young things. Poole replicates his post-All-Star surge, helping rehabilitate his value both inside and outside the District. The Wizards look more consistently competent, but still lose enough to land near the top of the lottery odds, land one of those top-tier prospects, and enter the summer feeling closer to seeing the light at the end of the tunnel.

If everything falls apart

None of the kids truly pop, all seeming like they’re going to need a lot longer in the proverbial developmental oven. Poole doesn’t bounce back, looking like one of the very worst contracts in the league, and the best Washington can get for any of its good-not-great vets are some spare second-rounders. The Wizards lose even more than last season but get jumped in the lottery odds, and have to watch other teams get the cream of the crop while they try to make the best of what’s left. D.C. fans feel a familiar encroaching dread: that the light at the end of the tunnel is actually a train about to run them over.

Fantasy spin

It’ll be a bumpy ride rostering any Wizard this season. Poole was abysmal for long stretches last season, but he came alive once he took over the point guard duties. Brogdon is hurt, so Poole opens the season as the lead facilitator, which should help his assist numbers. Kuzma’s shooting 30% from the floor in the preseason. He’s also been airballing shots left and right lately, so I’m out on Kuzma unless you’re playing in a points league.

Sarr is an intriguing prospect known for his defense. However, his offensive bag isn’t ready, so Sarr will primarily be a rim protector, rebounder and disruptor. I like Valančiūnas, but I’m concerned for his long-term outlook. If he does not intend to leave D.C. via trade, there’s an easy double-double waiting in the eighth round. — Dan Titus

2024-25 schedule

I think this team might be bad enough to lose 62 games without trading any of its veterans, and I think it’s going to trade those veterans. It’s an under for me. Courage, Washingtonians. Courage.