We are 50 days from the US presidential election. Here’s where things stand.

The campaign has already seen its fair share of historic turns. And to underscore that anything can still happen to change the trajectory of the race, the FBI is now investigating what they said “appears” to be a second assassination attempt against Trump near his West Palm Beach golf course in Florida on Sunday.

The incident comes just months after the July assassination attempt against Trump in Butler, Pennsylvania, where the former president sustained a gunshot wound to his ear during an outdoor rally. Officials said no one was injured in Sunday’s incident.

The first assassination attempt ushered in a wave of populist support for Trump, who — for a brief moment — seemed to be running away with the election, especially with a shaky debate performance from President Joe Biden. Then, a week after the attempted shooting, Biden announced he would exit the race and endorse Harris, and everything changed.

Harris has been riding a wave of growing support ever since. The recent debate in Philadelphia was widely seen as a success for Harris, who made her campaign appeal in front of her largest single-day audience since Biden stepped aside.

Nationally, the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll shows Harris with a six-point lead over Trump (52% to 46%) among likely voters.

But as Americans know well, it’s about the electoral college, not the popular vote. So, in the next seven weeks, a lot of math will be performed as the candidates make a mad grab for any available votes.

Harris and Trump do the electoral math

After Biden left the race, the Democratic Party rallied around Harris.

Polling in critical swing states — like Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina — immediately began to shift, largely due to the vice president’s popularity among women and young voters.

In the swing states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, Harris and Trump remain neck and neck — though Harris has seen her position strengthen in Wisconsin.

Both campaigns are eying Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional district, which is anchored in the Omaha metropolitan area. The district offers just one electoral vote, but in a sign of just how close American elections have become, both sides consider it crucial. Trump won it in 2016. Biden won it in 2020.

The Harris campaign hopes the Midwestern roots of her vice presidential pick, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota, will help the Democrats hold onto the 2nd district. Walz will face off against Ohio Sen. JD Vance, who also has Midwestern roots, on October 1 in what could be the last debate of the election season.

Michigan, another Midwestern state, also remains competitive. Gov. Gretchen Whitmer warned Democrats not to believe the polls showing Harris with a comfortable lead in the state.

Both campaigns continue to pour considerable time and financial resources into Pennsylvania, where Democratic candidates have won every presidential election since 1992 except for one — when Trump won it in 2016.

Trump hopes to reclaim Pennsylvania and a handful of other states that flipped to the Democrats between 2016 and 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Earlier this summer, the GOP eyed potential upsets in New Hampshire and Virginia, but recent polling shows that both states are likely to remain in the Democratic column this fall.

The vice-presidential debate looms large

Walz and Vance’s October debate in New York City will give the American public their first chance at seeing both men together onstage in a major setting.

For Walz, it’ll be a chance to sway undecided voters who may be leaning toward Harris but want to hear more from the Democratic ticket about their plans for the economy.

While Harris’ debate performance went a long way in assuaging some voters regarding her ability to lead the country, some are still undecided. Walz could be an effective conduit for those voters.

For Vance, the debate will allow him to speak about the Republican ticket’s policy message in a manner that eludes Trump, who often veers off-script.

Walz has seen favorable polling in recent weeks. Vance has not.

Vance has been highly visible in the media but has been forced to repeatedly defend himself against past stances on issues like IVF — as well as newer controversies like his remarks regarding Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio.

So while the momentum may be for now in the Democrats’ favor, 50 days is a long time in a race that has seen major shifts in time spans as short as a week. Who will be on top by the time voting is finished on November 5 remains anyone’s guess.