Week 1 Big Ten Picks

Hello and welcome back to my gambling picks. Kirk Ferentz sapped my joy last year but I feel renewed heading into the college football slate fresh off the high of watching Caitlin Clark play basketball over 60 times in the last calendar year.

Thursday – aka no bets on these guys

Friday

Saturday

Sunday

• USC Trojans (+4 | +150) v LSU Tigers (-180 | O/U 64) (Las Vegas)

Wow. That’s a lot of games. Had we considered how many games it would be in a non-conference week before adding those teams from the West Coast? Seems like maybe not! 18 is more than any given NFL week!!! I guess it’s only 13 if you don’t count the games on Thursday/Friday (and I like NONE of them).

When the calendar turns to Saturday, there are some lines which immediately stick out including a tried and true: ILL ST/IOWA UNDER 41. Consider me among the believers of Tim Lester’s offense but also consider me a believer of reality. No Kirk probably means a hint of conservative game management we haven’t seen since pre-Kasino Kirk and a totally reasonably optimistic score of something like 30-10 would feel like such a step up from an offensive perspective but still below the line. Until we see a Lester offense break from the Brian-era trends (overs 6-15-1 in non-conference games, 33-52-1 overall)…we’ll continue to ride it.

Another one I like is Northwestern -3. In a tumultuous season, David Braun kept the ‘cats afloat with a 7-5 regular season and bowl victory over Utah. This game is absolutely vital to them if they hope to repeat as bowl participants and they return a starter at QB. One area for concern is their run game, though. 2.89 YPG won’t cut it.

Under James Franklin, overs are 6-3 in first games for the Nittany Lions. West Virginia has some momentum after a 9-4 season where they averaged 31.5 PPG despite hovering a season below Petras Line (56.7%). PSU/WVU OVER 51.5

Hopping the pond, Hawai’i +14 sticks out as they are 7-3 ATS since 2005 when hosting a team playing their first game of the season.

Closing out the weekend is an absolute banger of a game as the anti-Hawkeyes take on LSU in Vegas. Lincoln Riley’s Trojans are 7-1 OVER in non-conference games and honestly, that tracks as they care as little about defense as possible. We’ll have to see it to believe it with their new defensive coordinator so USC/LSU OVER 64.