Week 12 2024 DFS DraftKings Milly Maker Breakdown

The dynamic game of Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) requires much more than simply knowing the sport for which we’re entering contests to be successful. We must be adaptable, precise, and open to learning from previous endeavors, the latter of which will be the primary focus of this weekly written piece. Game Theoretic methodologies will allow us to analyze and dissect the previous week’s winner of the largest and most prestigious Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) tournament on DraftKings – the Millionaire Maker. These same tenets of Game Theory, which can most simply be explained as the development of decision-making processes given our own skill and knowledge, assumptions of the field based on the cumulative skill and knowledge of others playing the same game, and the rules and structure of the game itself, will allow us to further train our minds to see beyond the antiquated techniques of roster building being employed by a large portion of the field. Approaching improvement through these methods will give us insight into the anatomy of successful rosters and will help us develop repeatably profitable habit patterns for the coming weeks. We’ll start by looking at the previous week’s winning roster, extract any pertinent lessons for future utilization, and finish with a look ahead towards the coming main slate.

Winning Roster

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Lessons Learned

Balance in Roster Building

We’ve talked previously about the difference between optimal and winning rosters, with the biggest difference being that optimal rosters very often don’t include team over-stacks or game environment correlations. This roster is a solid example of the middle ground between optimal and +EV practices, with a primary stack that includes the +EV practice of including a running back and the remainder of the pieces being largely confined to one-offs. This is often the most balances way to approach ultra-large field contests like the Millionaire Maker on DraftKings as it reduces the number of bets you need to get right while also keeping close to optimal theory. Well done, kittyplume!

Reminder of the Leverage RB in Primary Brings

Within that balance in DraftKings user kittyplume’s roster is the presence of a primary over-stack from the Dolphins, which we know has a hit rate higher than its utilization rate from the field. This simple act reduced the effective number of “bets” they had to get right from nine individual bets to seven, effectively increasing the chances of success by a factor of 100. We still need a lot of things to break in our favor to win a major GPP like the Millionaire Maker, but playing with odds that are 100 times better than your opponents on a weekly basis will increase your chances to win over time!

Looking Ahead

Anthony Richardson + Adonai Mitchell

Both Josh Downs and Ashton Dulin are out for Week 13 while Alec Pierce is listed as questionable after two missed practices and one full showing this week. That opens a massive door for Adonai Mitchell, who has been targeted on 20 of 36 routes against man coverage this season. Considering the Patriots rank third in the league in man coverage rate at 39.8% and Mitchell is stepping into a featured role in the offense, this tidy primary stack brings immense upside for a tiny combined salary this week, allowing maximum roster flexibility throughout the remainder of the roster.

Jalen Hurts + Saquon Barkley + A.J. Brown

There are very few teams that have “put the slate out of reach” upside on a given slate, with the Eagles being one of those teams. The Ravens have allowed the second most pass yards per game and A.J. Brown is one of the true remaining alpha wide receivers in the league. Finally, Saquon Barkley can win in any matchup, giving this stack a clear path to immense upside at ridiculously low ownership.

Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews

On the other side of that same game, the Ravens rank second in scoring at a robust 30.3 points per game. Mark Andrews should see his snap rate jump following the injury to Charlie Kolar. Andrews saw his highest snap rate of the season in the only other game in which a primary tight end missed for the Ravens this season, which occurred in Week 10 (87% without Isaiah Likely). We know Andrews already has a robust red zone role, with an increase to his expected snap rate and route participation rate vaulting him into TE1 territory. Another way to gain access to a team that can return slate-breaking upside for a relatively low barrier of entry.