What to know ahead of the potentially record-breaking Thanksgiving travel week

SALT LAKE CITY — This Thanksgiving could produce record-breaking travel nationwide.

AAA projects nearly 80 million people will travel at least 50 miles during the Thanksgiving holiday, which runs from Nov. 26 through Dec. 2, according to the organization’s annual Thanksgiving travel report released Monday. It represents a 2.1% increase from last Thanksgiving.

“Thanksgiving is the busiest holiday for travel and, this year, we’re expecting to set new records across the board — from driving to flying and cruising,” Stacey Barber, vice president of AAA Travel, said in a statement. “Americans reconnect with family and friends over Thanksgiving, and travel is a big part of that.”

Most people are expected to travel by automobile, as usual. About 71.7 million people — or about 90% — are expected to make at least one trip of 50 miles or more over the holiday period, but airlines are also anticipating record-breaking numbers next week.

Transportation Security Administration officials said Tuesday it anticipates a record 18.3 million airline passengers will be screened, based on ticket sales, representing a 6% increase from last year’s Thanksgiving airport travel volume.

Lorie Dankers, a spokeswoman for the federal agency’s Pacific region, said record volumes aren’t anticipated at Salt Lake City International Airport, but that doesn’t mean lines won’t be busy at times. More than 200,000 passengers are expected to be screened during the holiday period, but during “condensed” times.

Behind the trends

Lower gas prices are helping fuel AAA’s automobile travel projections. The organization reported on Tuesday that the average price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell to $3.06 nationwide — about a quarter per gallon cheaper than this time last year. Utah’s average is a bit higher, at $3.13 per gallon, but that’s also about 26 cents cheaper than last year.

The nationwide average could soon drop to below $3 per gallon for the first time since 2021, AAA noted, adding that thankful drivers would be more likely to hit the road and take advantage of the situation.

The organization also anticipates heavy travel via planes, trains, buses and cruises, with the latter three combined potentially jumping up by 9% from Thanksgiving 2023. AAA wrote that cruise demand remains “red hot” since the COVID-19 pandemic, with domestic and international cruise bookings up 20% compared to last year.

As for airlines, AAA says flight prices are down, especially for international flights, which contributes to its projection that international flights will jump 23% from last year.

TSA Administrator David Pekoske adds the projection continues a trend that hasn’t stopped this year. All 10 of the busiest travel days in TSA history have occurred this year, including a record 3 million on July 7.

That record could be snapped on Dec. 1 — the busiest of any of the travel period day — as more than 3 million passengers are expected to be screened. Nov. 26 and Nov. 27 are next, at 2.8 million and 2.9 million expected screenings, respectively.

Preparing for the travel

Thanksgiving travelers are encouraged to plan ahead because of this year’s high demand.

Similar travel patterns are expected on the roads as in the sky. The transportation data company INRIX anticipates Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons before the holiday and the Sunday afternoon after will likely be the busiest. Monday could also produce headaches on the roads, with a blend of people returning and standard work commutes.

Dankers said those three, as well as the Monday after Thanksgiving, are expected to be the busiest days at Salt Lake City International Airport, but possibly not as record-setting as the national total could be. The airport’s record is a little more than 35,000 passengers in one day.

“We will not see those volumes, but we’ll definitely see peaks in the day where we’re going to have a lot of people coming through the checkpoint,” she said, noting that the busiest times are generally from 6 a.m. to 9 a.m. and 1 p.m. to 4 p.m.

However, Dankers warns that hiccups can also lead to unexpected spikes and delays in TSA lines, such as weather or airline cancelations. That’s because many people leave even earlier than their flight departure when there’s bad weather that could impact their flight, while flight cancelations could push people onto different flights that change projections.

Passengers are encouraged to arrive at least two hours before a scheduled domestic flight and three hours before any international flight so they can make it to the plane on time.

“That’s why I always say, ‘Expect the unexpected,'” she said. “Allow time for that.”