What Will a Second Trump Term Mean for Fashion’s Sustainability Ambitions?

2024 is already shaping up to be the warmest year on record, and scientists say the world needs to rally to reduce carbon emissions from 2019 levels by at least 48 percent by 2030 to avoid even greater devastation that will impact food security, water scarcity and human lives. Trump will be the leader of the free world until 2029. The thinking also goes that if the world’s biggest economy won’t commit to United Nations-facilitated efforts such as increasing funding for vulnerable countries to adapt to the effects of climate change, or achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, then why should others? To say that the fate of the world rests on what happens during Trump’s second act, in other words, may not be an exaggeration.

“A Trump presidency poses an unprecedented threat to human rights, both nationally and globally,” Simpliciano said. “While this fills me with deep concern, repressive governments are nothing new, and collective action has always endured. What’s different now is the accelerating pace of climate change. In the face of this urgency, our response must be stronger and more united than ever.”

Still, there’s a chance that Trump’s rhetoric could filter into the broader zeitgeist, said Divya Demato, CEO of GoodOps, a climate supply-chain consultancy based in San Francisco. Considering that he trounced Vice President Kamala Harris to secure the popular vote by a margin of 4 million, at least at last count, perhaps it already has.

“Consumers’ sustainable shopping intentions were already lagging, and this may decline further under an administration that deprioritizes sustainability,” she said. “As immediate societal issues take precedence, consumer focus is shifting toward personal well-being over collective or global concerns, mirroring the election’s emphasis on individual prosperity over broader societal impact.”

Even so, “atmospheric science doesn’t care whether Trump or any politician thinks climate change is ‘real,’” said Michael Sadowski, a climate and sustainability consultant and former Nike director of sustainable business and innovation. And the effects of warming temperatures are already striking perilously close to home.

“We are seeing the impacts today, from November hurricanes near the U.S.—insane—to deadly flooding in Spain to severe heat and drought in countries that are critical to the apparel sector, e.g., Pakistan and Bangladesh,” he said. These impacts will only get worse as we continue to increase emissions, as will the effects on apparel and footwear companies.”

A ‘deafening void of inaction’

The priorities of the $1 trillion fashion industry, as a microcosm of larger, more existential issues, may seem to pale in comparison, but they’re far from inconsequential. Depending on whose numbers you believe, apparel and footwear production accounts for 2-8 percent of the world’s carbon budget. Many of the world’s biggest brands and retailers—Gap Inc., Levi Strauss & Co., Nike, Calvin Klein owner PVH Corp. and The North Face parent VF Corp., to name a few—call the United States home, yet fashion remains one of the least regulated manufacturing sectors in the nation, falling behind efforts that have already percolated in Europe. Federal climate legislation, in particular, has been near-impossible to push past congressional Republican blockades. A Trump presidency, coupled with a red electoral sweep, renders proposals such as the Securities Exchange Commission’s climate-related financial risk disclosure rules, which are currently suspended in a legal holding pattern, effectively dead in the water.

“The conversation around emissions, like the pandemic before it, has been hijacked by politics, even as emissions themselves continue to present an existential threat to humanity,” Demato said. “The reality is that there is no clear agreement on what companies are emitting, who is responsible or what realistic alternatives can replace the current system.”

She expects corporate action on emissions to grind to a halt over the next few years, leaving a “deafening void of inaction.”

It’s down to the states then, said Maxine Bédat, director of the “think and do tank” the New Standard Institute and one of the architects of New York State’s Fashion Sustainability and Social Accountability Act. Better known as the New York Fashion Act, the bill seeks to hold apparel purveyors of a certain size and stature selling into the Empire State accountable for their outsized social and environmental footprints, requiring not only reporting but also action on greenhouse gas emissions reductions, say, or codifying responsible purchasing practices. It could form a template for other states that are looking for a version of their own.

Pockets of pro-science resistance also emerged on election night. In California, voters overwhelmingly threw their support behind a ballot measure for a $10 billion “climate bond” to fund climate and environmental initiatives such as offshore wind. Over in Washington State, voters soundly rejected a measure to repeal a carbon cap-and-trade law. And, failing everything else, there’s always Europe, whose upcoming due diligence and eco-design rules are settling into pole positions, albeit to the possible detriment of American leadership in the global sphere.

“The election of Trump is a significant setback for climate, but it’s not the end of the road,” Bédat said. “In fact, there is no end of the road, no binary. EU policy is important and will continue to be. State governments are more important than ever in upholding and advancing policy that can usher in the future of the industry.”

State legislation can also result in federal pushes, such as the Fashioning Accountability and Building Real Institutional Change, or FABRIC, Act, which stemmed from California’s Garment Worker Protection Act and seeks to hold brands liable for labor practices in their supply chain.

“It remains important to make use of all levers of change that are available to both governments and civil society to achieve progress in pursuit of our urgent climate and human rights goals,” said Emily Stochl, vice president of advocacy and community engagement at Remake, a fashion advocacy organization that champions the FABRIC Act. “This is also a time for changemakers to adopt a strong ‘think globally, act locally’ mindset and to remember that strong state-level, and even municipal-level, policy remains a viable tool.”