Why Diamondbacks-Rangers World Series rematch is not on tap

The last time the Arizona Diamondbacks and Texas Rangers played each other, at the end of May, was the first 2024 meeting since the 2023 World Series. Texas was 25-29 and Arizona was 25-28 entering the two-game series.

Since then — and ahead of the teams’ two-game series in Phoenix that begins Tuesday — the D-backs have rebounded into contending form with a 55-36 record to reach 80-64. The Rangers have not.

They went 45-45 and now sit at 70-74 overall, 6.5 games out of a Wild Card playoff spot with 18 games remaining. Thus, a World Series rematch will not be in the cards.

A fall-off for Texas was not expected, with a preseason over-under win total in the high 80s. If any team of last year’s two biggest surprises was predicted to miss the postseason, it was the D-backs.

So what happened to the Rangers?

To start, their offense has seen major individual regression.

OPS+ provides a solid indicator of how close or far players are from hitting league average, for better and for worse. With 100 as the middle ground, only four current Texas regulars (90-plus games played) sit north of that. Last year, 10 of the 12 Rangers with at least 90 games played were above league average.

Shortstop Corey Seager has been the lone constant this year, but even then, his OPS has dipped from 1.013 to .864, a 149-point drop-off.

Their two other star players have also seen major downticks. Right fielder Adolis Garcia (166 points to .670) and second baseman Marcus Semien (131 points to .695) are below-average hitters this year.

In simpler terms, the 2023 Rangers were third in catcher OPS and second baseman OPS, first in shortstop OPS and fifth in right fielder OPS, per Baseball-Reference. Only Seager has held within range this year at third.

At catcher with Jonah Heim (158 points to .597) and without Mitch Garver (signed with Seattle), Texas has dropped all the way to 26th, nearly rivaling right field’s fall with Garcia plummeting to 28th. Second base with Semien is down to a respectable 11th.

Texas’ lineup was really going to get pushed over the top by 2023 starlet Evan Carter and top prospect Wyatt Langford, but Carter has only played 45 games due to injury and Langford has been just fine, putting up a 101 OPS+ and .703 OPS.

Injuries have been significant in both departments, beyond just Carter. Third baseman Josh Jung was terrific in the World Series but played just four games before missing four months. He just returned at the end of July.

The pitching staff was already working from behind heading into the season with lengthy delays set on Jacob deGrom, Tyler Mahle and Max Scherzer. deGrom is nearly back from Tommy John Surgery and should pitch this season, Mahle didn’t pitch until Aug. 6 and Scherzer’s season debut was June 23.

Left-hander Cody Bradford missed nearly three months after making only three starts. Those four have combined for just 20 starts.

Texas still has Nathan Eovaldi (3.55 ERA, 1.06 WHIP), Andrew Heaney (3.84 ERA, 1.20 WHIP) and Jon Gray (4.47 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) putting up decent numbers. That’s not including trade deadline departure Michael Lorenzen, who had a 3.81 ERA in 18 starts before going to Kansas City.

All of that adds up to a perennially mid baseball team this year, sitting slightly below average in most basic statistical categories. There was no random major development to supplant this, like a D-backs batting lineup that was expected to be serviceable and instead is one of the best in MLB.

Texas should be back in the hunt next year, should the Rangers choose to be. Their key position players don’t have any major contract extensions coming up and Semien is the only one beyond his early 30s.

But Eovaldi, Heaney and Scherzer in the rotation are going to be on expiring deals in 2025. deGrom still has three pricey guaranteed years left, and there’s major long-term money spent on Seager and Semien too, so the Rangers will surely at least see out the first half of next year before some tough decisions could arrive.

Regardless, they serve as a lesson on the importance of capitalizing on your window when it’s there. Arizona’s window is open, while Texas’ is not.

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