Will Noah Lyles break Usain Bolt’s 200-meter world record? Science and training give him a chance, experts say

Li believes that science and better training will eventually catch up to Bolt and Florence Griffith-Joyner, another track legend, who has held the 100- and 200- meter women’s world records since 1988.

Bolt and Joyner are considered the best of all-time. And athletes are continuing to get faster and stronger — just incrementally, Li says.

Eventually, they will catch up, she says.

Li breaks down the progress being made using terms like physiological adaptation, supercompensation and mitochondria.

“Theoretically, there’s always limits,” says Li, who directs the university’s exercise science program. “But on the flip side, there’s physiological adaptation.”

Our bodies respond when pushed

Adaptation allows for gains in human potential, particularly across individuals, she says.

And that comes from gains incurred during a period of training called supercompensation, when the body has passed the need for recovery, but is ready to be pushed to the next fitness level, Li says.

Take endurance, for example, she says. Heart volume and oxygen intake capacity will increase, but only up to a certain size and level.

Where continuous improvements can be made are in the mitochondria contained within muscle cells. Mitochondria convert nutrients into energy-supplying molecules, and it is energy that can propel individuals to break records, Li says.

“By training, through adaptation, your mitochondria is going to increase in size and quantity,” she says, adding there are other forms of adaptation.

Swimming records continue to fall

While track records are broken infrequently, swimming records continue to be shattered, by men and women — even at the Paris Olympics, where the pool is reported to be shallow and slow.

Still, American Bobby Finke set a world record in the men’s 1,500-meter freestyle, while Pan Zhanle of China broke the men’s 100-meter record.

Roy Coates, Northeastern’s head swim coach, says knowledge about the physics of swimming continues to improve.

Deeper pools — the faster pools are three meters deep, not 2.15 meters such as the 2024 Olympic pool — gutters that absorb waves and techniques such as extending the time swimmers spend underwater are all recent advances in the sport, Coates says.

“Howard Powell, associate head track and field coach at Northeastern, says the potential pool of track athletes has not been plumbed yet.

Track and field ranks 12th in the U.S. for sports played regularly by children ages 6 to 12.

It’s possible that future track stars could come from other sports, such as football, Powell says. 

But the big paydays associated with the NFL are enough to keep a potential superstar track and field athlete in team sports, he says.

“Having better financial rewards will entice or encourage more people to come out for track,” Powell says.

Confidence plays a big role

Sprinters, of course, do not have the opportunity to radically change their technique by dolphin kicking part way around a track.

On the track, confidence plays a big role in approaching records set by legends, Powell says. And Lyles will have plenty of that after Sunday’s golden performance.

“I just don’t think people are afraid anymore when going after these things,” he says. “There’s a lack of fear.”

Lyles has said his heart is set on Thursday’s 200 event, which he calls his favorite race.

Major advances in training

Northeastern experts say the ways in which sports training and technology has advanced since Jesse Owens ran on a cinderblock track could fill an encyclopedia.

Carbon fiber plates in shoes give runners an additional bounce, and rubberized tracks are easier and faster on their feet and legs, Powell says.

“Everything from sports psychology to nutrition to physical training has all become much more evidence-based,” says Clark, who is director of performance rehabilitation in Northeastern’s sports performance department.

“Athletes used to do a lot more aerobic-based training in the past. But we found if you’re going to train a sprinter to run fast, it’s far more important to build up their short-term energy systems,” he says.

Just as important are advances in recovery and rehabilitation, Clark says. 

“A lot of it is just good quality medical care, understanding anatomy and physiology and the healing process,” he says.

Incentives are stronger than ever

The result of improvements in training and technology is that “today’s young people are just better all-around athletes,” Powell says.

And while track records may be broken by smaller increments, the incentive to do so is greater than ever, he says.

The contracts of many elite athletes stipulate they will receive extra payments for topping past performances in addition to winning medals and other performance goals, Powell says.

He says that means there are more incentives to break records, even in small increments.

“Every time they break the record, there’s some financial gain,” Powell says. “Every time you break a record or become a medalist, your value goes up.”