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Wittenmyer & Williams: How are Cincinnati Reds supposed to compete amid MLB’s $765M deals?

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Wittenmyer & Williams: How are Cincinnati Reds supposed to compete amid MLB’s 5M deals?

Wittenmyer & Williams is a regular point/counterpoint column from Enquirer Reds reporter Gordon Wittenmyer and sports columnist Jason Williams. This week, they debate how the Reds will fare in a world of $765 million contracts.

Wittenmyer: Don’t know if you were paying much attention during the winter meetings while you were monitoring the Bengals’ vital signs the last couple of weeks. But the price of doing business in Major League Baseball just moved another $765 million out of the Cincinnati Reds’ reach.

Williams: You’re talking about Juan Soto’s contract with the Mets? Big deal.

Wittenmyer: Yeah. Really big deal. And not just him. Even the manager of Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers was surprised that a player got that much money only a year after Ohtani got $700 million. You gotta start wondering about what that means for small-market teams like the Reds.

Williams: So what else is new? It doesn’t change anything. The only thing it means for the Reds is what I’ve told you since the day you got here: Trust the process, son.

Wittenmyer: Quit calling me son. And you’re wrong. What it means for the Reds is they better win now and they better win big because the cost of winning is only going to go up – and maybe by hundreds of millions – over the next five years even.

Williams: Enlighten here. I’m not seeing how this changes the Reds’ plan for next season or the long term. They’ve got a great young core, and more good players coming behind them in the system. They now have a hall of fame manager overseeing things. The future looks bright. What are you talking about?

Wittenmyer: That’s what I’m talking about. They’ve got Terry Francona on a three-year deal. He’s 65, so how long is he going to be around. And as for your great core, the highest-ceiling guy is a free agent in five years. What’s Elly De La Cruz going to be worth then? Some executives and agents are already saying that he might have a chance to be baseball’s first billion-dollar player.

Williams: So be it. That’s when we have a chance to see the process work, when guys from the system like Edwin Arroyo, Cam Collier and Chase Burns are making an impact for the club. That’s the process the Reds began back in 2022 – acquire and develop young talent to build a pipeline that can sustain a competitive big-league team.

Wittenmyer: What, are you on the Reds’ payroll now?

Williams: They couldn’t afford me.

Wittenmyer: Exactly. That’s my point. If your process can only take a big-league team so far. There’s failure built into player development – just look at some of the guys who underperformed in 2024. At some point, you have to pay market prices to supplement a championship roster. And the Reds have shown at times they believe that with some of their signings, even if they haven’t always gotten them over the top. But these days, they don’t even have a modest local TV deal after the Bally’s bankruptcy wiped out a lot of that revenue short-term. And the prices for players are skyrocketing. And even with an expanded playoff field, good luck fighting through a wild-card landscape that might include three of these five teams: the Mets, Phillies, Braves, Padres and Dodgers. There are two $700 million players and seven more $300 million players in that group alone.

Williams: Well, good thing the Reds are in the NL Central.

Wittenmyer: Have you heard of Kyle Tucker?

Williams: I saw the clickbait you wrote the other day, saying I should be afraid of the Cubs now that they acquired Tucker from Houston. They’re still the Cubs. The Reds have a better manager and better pitching.

Wittenmyer: I got your clickbait right here. Look, there’s only one thing you’ve been right about all day, and that’s the fact that they better win the division. Because that’s looking more and more like the Reds’ only path with all the money flying around the game these days.

Williams: It certainly factors into the plan that the Reds play in the NL’s small-market division.

Wittenmyer: Yeah, with the exception of the Cubs if they finally decide to start swinging with the other big boys in the league.

Williams: They always seem to find a way to Cub it up. Milwaukee has been good at doing more with less. I’d worry more about the Brewers, despite losing two All-Stars in shortstop Willy Adames and closer Devin Williams. St. Louis might be taking a step back right now by cutting payroll and getting rid of some veterans. But you know the Cardinals are never out of the mix for long.

Wittenmyer: If you’re right, that just makes my point for me. If the process works for the Reds, it means they’re young players are on star tracks. And that puts an even higher premium on getting more wins in a shorter window, because of how fast salaries for stars are rising. The Reds haven’t won a playoff series in 30 years, and if they’re going to do in the foreseeable future, they have to do it now. And if that happens, it probably means guys like De La Cruz start looking like superstars.

Williams: It certainly is a superstar game these days. Just look at who was in the World Series. If Elly reaches that level, how is that a bad thing? That’s the process, right?

Wittenmyer: OK, sure. Then how long does he stay in a Reds uniform? His agent already says he’s probably not going to sign an extension. So do you lose him as a free agent in five years or trade him in four?

Williams: I wouldn’t necessarily slam the door on them finding a way to eventually get an extension done. They paid their last franchise player a lot of money, and Joey Votto finished his career as a Red.

Wittenmyer: But a billion dollars? Come on, man. Of course, there is one way the Castellinis might be able to find the money to pay Elly. Forbes says the franchise is worth $1.26 billion.

Williams: Don’t even go there, son.

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