WNBA playoffs: What’s at stake in the final week

The final week of the 2024 WNBA regular season is a race for positioning, and for three teams it’s a race to qualify. The top eight teams, regardless of conference, make the postseason and seven teams have clinched a playoff berth. Chicago, Atlanta and Washington are battling for the final spot.

No one is locked into a seed yet. Not even New York, the most consistent team of the season and first 30-win team of the year, has clinched the top overall seed with four games left on most teams’ schedules. The season ends Sept. 19 and the playoffs begin Sept. 22. Here’s how the playoff picture looks, what’s at stake in the final week of the season and which teams have the edge.

Playoff picture

As of Thursday, Sept. 12.

1. New York (30-6)*

2. Minnesota (27-9, 3 GB)*

3. Connecticut (26-10, 4 GB)*

4. Las Vegas (23-13, 7 GB)*

5. Seattle (22-14, 8 GB)*

6. Indiana (19-18, 11.5 GB)*

7. Phoenix (17-19, 13)*

8. Chicago (13-23, 17 GB)

9. Atlanta (12-24, 18 GB)

10. Washington (12-24, 18 GB)
    *Clinched playoff berth

Who clinches the final playoff seed?

Washington took a major step to steal the No. 8 seed with an 89-58 win in Chicago on Wednesday night. The Mystics pulled even with Atlanta in the standings and dragged both franchises within one game of tying the Sky. All have four games remaining.

Chicago started the evening with a 1.5-game lead over Atlanta and a two-game lead over Washington, but continued its post-Olympic break free fall. The Sky are 2-8 over the last 10 games, better than only the lowly Sparks (1-9), and are without Angel Reese (wrist) and Diamond DeShields (ankle). Chicago signed Kaela Davis, a 6-2 forward who last played in 2022, to a hardship contract Wednesday.

This was always a rebuild year for first-year head coach Teresa Weatherspoon, and the franchise reiterated that with its trade of Marina Mabrey ahead of the break. And an eighth-place or even ninth-place finish would exceed preseason expectations, when some predicted the Sky to be dead last.

Of the three contenders for the No. 8 seed, the Sky have the toughest final stretch. Three of the Sky’s four final games are on the road. Two are against top-four seeds in Minnesota and Connecticut, both of which are going for season-series sweeps. In between, the Sky host Phoenix (also going for the sweep) and travel to Atlanta (2-1).

The Dream and Mystics play each other twice (at Atlanta on Friday, at Washington on Sunday) in games that will determine if either can overtake the Sky. The Dream and Mystics split their earlier two games, but both were played within the first month.

The Dream are the most dangerous of the three. Rhyne Howard, who returned from injury shortly before the All-Star break, scored at least 30 (shooting 46%) in three consecutive games last week. And the Dream’s final four games are the easiest of the teams battling for a playoff spot with a home finale against Chicago, though the Dream finish the season at league-leading New York. Should the Dream earn the final berth, they would play the Liberty again in the first round.

Washington hosts New York and Indiana to finish the season.

No. 1 seed: New York’s to lose

New York, the first franchise with back-to-back 30-win seasons, is in the captain’s seat for the top seed over Minnesota, which is three games back with four games to play. Third-place Connecticut could win out and tie New York atop the standings should the Liberty lose out, but New York holds that tiebreaker (3-1).

The Liberty will host Minnesota on Sunday (3 p.m. ET, League Pass) in a game that could ultimately determine the No. 1 seed. They’ve split their two regular-season matchups. New York blew out Minnesota by 17 in May, and the Lynx edged the Liberty by nine in July. Minnesota also won the Commissioner’s Cup over the Liberty.

New York has the easiest schedule of top-seed contenders with three of its four final games against teams currently in the lottery. Minnesota has to travel one last time to Connecticut immediately after playing New York.

It would be the second time in league history the Liberty finished with the best record in the league. The Liberty also held the No. 1 seed in 2015, when it led the league defensively, but ranked 10th in offensive rating under head coach Bill Laimbeer. They lost in the Eastern Conference finals to the Fever.

No. 2 seed: A race to avoid the Fever

Minnesota and Connecticut are in a tight battle for the No. 2 seed to guarantee home-court advantage through the semifinals. It would also likely keep them from meeting the red-hot Fever in the first round, which at this rate is a welcome outcome. Indiana could clinch the No. 6 seed as early as Friday.

The Lynx lead the Sun by one game. They finish their three-game regular-season series Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, League Pass). Connecticut won 83-82 (OT) in May and 78-73 in July. Napheesa Collier injured her foot in that July loss and missed the next five games before the All-Star/Olympic break. It will be the first game played with Marina Mabrey in a Sun uniform. She scored 26 with six 3s off the bench against LA on Tuesday.

Neither team has a particularly easy stretch to end the season.

Minnesota’s East Coast trip is sandwiched between Friday night’s game at home against Chicago and the season finale against Los Angeles at home. The Sky are hampered by injuries, and Los Angeles already locked in the top odds for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2025 Draft Lottery.

Connecticut travels to Phoenix and Las Vegas before finishing at home against Minnesota and Chicago. It could make up ground on the Lynx. The Sun defeated Phoenix three times by an average of 20 points, but had some of their closest wins of the season against Chicago.

No. 4 seed: Will Seattle or Las Vegas host the other?

With New York and Minnesota locked into top-four seeds and Connecticut a near-lock, the key race is for the No. 4 seed between Las Vegas and Seattle. The winner hosts the first two games of the best-of-three series between the two as they’re almost guaranteed to finish with the fourth and fifth seeds.

Las Vegas has the edge on Seattle, but faces a tougher schedule down the stretch. The Aces play the Fever in Indianapolis again Friday after a tightly contested win Wednesday night. They host Connecticut, travel to Seattle and host Dallas in the season finale.

Seattle nearly lost ground in the race, having to battle back from a first-half deficit against the Sparks. It was the team’s first back-to-back wins since before the Olympic break. The Storm are in a similar position to the 2023 Liberty, trying to build chemistry after signing two All-Stars in the offseason. The Storm play Dallas on the road, Los Angeles, Las Vegas and at Phoenix.

If the season ended Thursday morning

No. 8 Chicago at No. 1 New York
No. 5 Seattle at No. 4 Las Vegas
No. 7 Phoenix at No. 2 Minnesota
No. 6 Indiana at No. 3 Connecticut