World leaders gather at COP29 as Trump’s election clouds global climate finance goals

This week, world leaders will convene in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the annual UN Climate Change Conference. Climate finance, carbon markets and Trump’s actions on energy transition are at the forefront of talks.

The Azeri COP29 presidency is lining up a series of clean energy pledges that nations can rally around, such as a hydrogen declaration, and pledges on energy storage, grids and corridors.

However, Donald Trump’s win in the US presidential election has dampened hopes for a new global climate finance target, potentially altering the climate agenda.

Even so, cautious optimism prevails as parties finalize the rules for the Paris Agreement’s Article 6.4, which will create a new UN-led carbon market. This will allow countries and companies to trade emissions reductions.

In the US, refiners are likely to see some benefits from Trump’s presidency, especially with likely cuts to EV credits and lower CAFE standards, which could boost gasoline demand.

Asian refiners are also reassessing their strategies after Trump’s win. An anticipated slump in the US-China energy trade could open doors for more procurement of US crude outside China. This shift may reduce Asia’s reliance on Middle Eastern supplies.

In the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Rafael poses a major threat to infrastructure. Nearly 400,000 barrels per day of oil output is already shut in, as operators brace for the storm. This week will likely reveal the storm’s effects on production levels.

I’m Alexandre Silva. Thank you for kicking off your Monday with S&P Global Commodity Insights.