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World population could top out and decline earlier than predicted. What about US? NJ?

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World population could top out and decline earlier than predicted. What about US? NJ?

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A United Nations report released this week predicts the world population to top out in 2084, nearly two decades sooner than estimates from 2022.

The World Population Prospects 2024 report from the U.N.’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs predicts global population growth from 8.2 billion this year to approximately 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s before declines take over. The projection suggests a 2100 population that is 6% lower—700 million fewer—than estimates from a decade ago.

“The demographic landscape has evolved greatly in recent years. In some countries, the birth rate is now even lower than previously anticipated,” said Li Junhua, the U.N. under-secretary-general for economic and social affairs, in a statement. “We are also seeing slightly faster declines in some high-fertility regions.”

These countries have reached their population peak

As of 2024, 63 countries, including China, Germany, Japan, and Russia, have already seen their populations peak, according to the report, which is projecting a collective population decrease for those countries of 14% over the next 30 years. Another 48 countries are expected to peak between 2025 and 2054.

The United States of America is grouped in the remaining 126 countries. All populations are expected to grow until at least 2054. In nine of these countries, including birth rate leaders Niger, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo, populations are projected to double between 2024 and 2054.

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The report links several factors to the earlier projected peak, including declining fertility rates in major countries such as China. Globally, women now have one fewer child on average than they did in 1990. In over half of all countries, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1, the level needed to maintain a stable population without migration. Nearly one-fifth of countries, including Italy, South Korea, and Spain, have “ultra-low” fertility rates, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman, according to the report. Recent estimates from the federal government peg the U.S. rate at roughly 1.84.

Where does NJ rank in the U.S. population rate?

New Jersey sits firmly in the 20 states with the highest fertility rates, according to the Centers for Disease Control. It ranks above every other state in the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic and East Coast, but trails many in the Midwest and South, records show.

State Department of Health records dating back to 1990 show New Jersey’s rate has been on the decline since hitting a modern high of 2.07 in 2008. The 2022 rate, the most recent available, was nearly 1.75, down from roughly 1.95 in 1990 but up from a pandemic-era low of 1.66 in 2020. The total fertility rate metric estimates how many children 1,000 women would have on average if they experienced the current age-specific birth rates throughout their childbearing years.

As of 2022, more than half of New Jersey’s 21 counties had a rate between 1.6 and 1.8. The lowest, roughly 1.48, can be found in Hudson County. The highest, nearly 2.9, can be found in Ocean County.

Decreases in fertility rate globally have primarily been chalked up by experts to lower infant mortality rates due to improvements in health care and the empowerment of women in society and personal relationships. Still, while fertility rates drop so do mortality rates.

Over the past three decades, life expectancy has significantly increased. After a brief decline during the COVID-19 pandemic, fueled in the United States by deaths linked to the virus, drug overdoses and accidental injury, global life expectancy at birth is rising again. It reached 73.3 in 2024, up from 70.9 during the pandemic, according to the report. By the late 2050s, more than half of all global deaths are expected to occur at age 80 or older, a substantial increase from 17% in 1995.

By the mid-2030s, those aged 80 and older will outnumber infants under one year old, according to the report. By the late 2070s, the number of people aged 65 and older is projected to surpass the number of children under 18.

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