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World population projected to peak at 10.3 billion in 2080s, new United Nations report says

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World population projected to peak at 10.3 billion in 2080s, new United Nations report says

The world’s population is expected to grow to an estimated 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, according to a new report from the United Nations.

That’s up from the current global population of 8.2 billion people.

The United Nations report identified the following population trends:

  • The estimated size of the world’s population at the end of the century (2100) is now expected to be 6% smaller than estimated a decade ago.
  • Across the globe, one in four people lives in a country whose population has already peaked.
  • In 63 countries, population size peaked before 2024. Some of those countries include China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation.

Global population experiences dramatic growth

The U.N. Population Fund said the global population crossed the 7 billion mark in 2011. Historically, it took hundreds of thousands of years to reach a single billion before growing sevenfold in roughly two centuries, the U.N. said.

Recent dramatic growth has largely been driven by more people surviving to reproductive age, along with more urbanization and large-scale migration. 

Calculating the number of future people is not a perfect science with “many sources of uncertainty in estimating the global population,” the Census Bureau said. It estimated the world reached 8 billion people last September while the U.N. timed the milestone nearly one year earlier.

The global population is aging

People 65 and older are expected to outnumber kids 18 and younger by the year 2080, the UN report found. The cohort of senior citizens is expected to reach 2.2 billion in size.

By the mid 2030s, the number of people 80 and older will be 265 million, larger than the number of infants – those 1 year or younger.

Most populous places within the U.S.

The current U.S. population is 341.8 million. While the U.N. report didn’t specify how much the U.S. population would grow, it is among 126 countries whose population is expected to increase through the 2050s.

California is the most populous state in the country with nearly 39.1 million people, followed by Texas with about 30.5 million, according to the bureau. New York City is the most populous city with more than 8.3 million inhabitants. 

Last year’s population growth was largely driven by the South, the Census Bureau said. The South is the most populous region and the only one to maintain population growth throughout the pandemic.

Texas added more residents than any other state, welcoming over 473,000 people, followed by Florida’s 365,000 new residents between 2022 and 2023.

Contributing: Minnah Arshad, USA TODAY

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