World Series: Important matchups include Dodgers pitchers vs. Yankees 3-4 hitters, testing Freddie Freeman

The 2024 World Series will be a battle of the titans. Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees, the teams with the best record in each league, and the sport’s two big market powerhouses. This is the 12th Dodgers vs. Yankees World Series all-time. It is the most common postseason matchup in baseball history. No two teams have met more often than these two.

“I’m a baseball fan first,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said earlier this week. “And when you’re talking about the two biggest media markets in the world, and you’re talking about the best and brightest stars in baseball on the same field, on the biggest of stages, what baseball fan, what sports fan, wouldn’t want to lock into this series? For the Dodgers franchise, for the Yankees franchise, for sports fans, I just think it’s what everyone wanted.”

This World Series is not short on star power. It’s also not short on intriguing storylines and individual matchups that will ultimately decide this year’s championship. Here now are three important matchups that will play out during the World Series and could very well determine which team hoists the Commissioner’s Trophy.

Phillips/Treinen vs. Judge/Stanton

The Yankees were entirely too right-handed last season. Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch is very friendly to lefty hitters who put the ball in the air, yet the Yankees had the second fewest plate appearances by left-handed batters. Only the Blue Jays had fewer. In related news, the Yankees missed the postseason and went 82-80, their worst record in three decades.

To rectify that, GM Brian Cashman imported multiple lefty hitters last offseason, most notably Juan Soto but also Alex Verdugo and Trent Grisham. The Yankees went from 29th in lefty plate appearances last season to fifth this year. Problem solved. They also went from 25th in runs scored per game last year to third this year. New York’s offense is much better and much deeper.

Manager Aaron Boone adhered to the alternating right/left/right/left lineup construction during the regular season. Soto hit second, Aaron Judge hit third, a revolving door of lefties hit cleanup, and Giancarlo Stanton hit fifth. It wasn’t until ALCS Game 5 that Boone abandoned it and hit Judge and Stanton back-to-back in the 3-4 lineup spots. Two righties back-to-back (gasp!).

Assuming Judge and Stanton continue to hit back-to-back in the World Series, it creates a lane for Roberts to use ace righty relievers Evan Phillips and Blake Treinen against New York’s power right-handed bats. Phillips and Treinen both dominate righties. Phillips with four-seam fastballs and sweepers, Treinen with sinkers and sweepers. The regular season numbers:

The thing is, sandwiching a lefty in the cleanup spot between Judge and Stanton wouldn’t deter Roberts from going to Phillips or Treinen for that part of the lineup. The Yankees don’t want to move Soto down and risk him getting one fewer at-bat in the game, Anthony Rizzo is playing with two broken fingers, and Verdugo, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Austin Wells are having poor postseasons.

Sticking with Judge and Stanton in the 3-4 spots and stacking your best hitters together atop the lineup is the way to go, and doing so would create good matchup opportunities for the heavily-used Dodgers bullpen. Good matchups on paper, for sure, though it is worth nothing Judge was the best hitter in baseball against sweepers this season. By a lot too.

Here are the best hitters against sweepers in 2024 by Statcast’s run values:

1. Aaron Judge, Yankees: +14 runs
2. Gunnar Henderson, Orioles: +9 runs
3. Manny Machado, Padres: +8 runs
4. Willy Adames, Brewers: +7 runs
5. Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: +7 runs

Stanton is more or less an average hitter against sweepers. Judge though is the best in the game. Also, he was the best hitter in baseball against four-seamer fastballs (plus-34 runs) and sinkers (plus-19 runs). Judge was the best hitter in baseball against three different pitch types, and they just so happen to be the three pitch types Phillips and Treinen throw.

That does not guarantee Judge will hit Phillips and Treinen, or that Phillips and Treinen will shut Stanton down. You can break down the matchups and look at all the numbers any number of ways. What matters most is execution in the moment. Phillips leaving a sweeper up will matter more than Judge’s season numbers against sweepers. Treinen burying a sinker in on Stanton’s hands will win the battle, not their head-to-head history (1 for 6 with two walks).

Stanton is one of the greatest postseason power hitters ever. The Yankees should just leave him in the cleanup spot directly behind Judge. All squeezing a lefty in there for right/left/right/eft purposes does is give the Dodgers an escape hatch. It gives them an easier out between the two big bats. Without or without a lefty between them, Judge and Stanton figure to see Phillips and Treinen an awful lot in the late innings in the World Series.

Hill vs. Ohtani

What a whirlwind this year has been for Yankees lefty reliever Tim Hill. Hill got non-tendered by the Padres last offseason, signed a one-year contract worth $1.8 million with the White Sox, then got released on June 18 with a 5.87 ERA. Getting released by the 2024 White Sox is usually a sign you’ve outlived your baseball usefulness, and the game is done with you.

Instead, the Yankees took a chance on the 34-year-old, and signed Hill two days after the ChiSox cut him loose. He emerged as a trusted bullpen weapon for New York, throwing 44 innings with a 2.05 ERA in pinstripes. His effectiveness has continued into October. Hill’s allowed one earned run in 5 2/3 innings in the postseason, and he pitched five times in six days in the ALCS.

The funky lefty is New York’s go-to left-on-left matchup reliever and it stands to reason Hill will see plenty of Shohei Ohtani in the World Series. Ohtani was much better against righties than lefties this season, though he hasn’t bad against lefties: 1.128 OPS vs. RHP and .867 OPS vs. LHP. Ohtani’s peripheral stats were all slightly worse against lefties as well:

Again, Ohtani isn’t bad against lefties, he’s merely very good compared to being superhuman against righties. A 20.3% HR/FB rate — one home run every five fly balls, more or less — is completely bonkers. That’s a rate only the very best power hitters in the sport can put up, and that’s what Ohtani did with the platoon disadvantage. He’s unbelievable. He really is.

Given the choice, you’d rather force Ohtani to face a left-hander, and Hill is New York’s trusted southpaw. He’s a funky one too, with a near-submarine arm slot and an unusual approach. Hill throws about 95% fastballs (sinkers and four-seamers), and he had both the lowest strikeout rate and the highest ground ball rate in baseball in 2024 (minimum 66 innings).

Furthermore, Hill pitches lefties inside with his 88-89 mph sinker consistently. He jams them inside and gets ground balls, and does not allow them to extend their arms. Ohtani though is very good at hitting inside pitches, particularly against lefties. He hit .338 with a .508 slugging percentage against lefty sinkers overall. Here’s Ohtani’s slugging percentage zone profile against lefties:

Ohtani hammers inside pitches from lefties and Hill pitches lefties inside almost exclusively. Every once in a while he’ll spin a slider in the right-handed hitter’s batter’s box, though it’s infrequent. Given how well Ohtani hits the inside pitch from lefties, Hill might have to use his slider more than usual just to put something else in Ohtani’s mind, and keep him off the inside sinker.

One thing Hill has going for him is the element of surprise. He had faced Ohtani only five times in his career (1 for 4 with a walk) but not at all the last three years. Ohtani faced Hill once in 2018, twice in 2020, and twice in 2021. Four years is an eternity in baseball years. Back then Hill threw more four-seamers and sliders. The sinker-heavy approach is fairly new. Ohtani hasn’t seen it.

It seems likely Nestor Cortes, who went down with a flexor strain in mid September, will be on New York’s World Series roster. He was excellent against left-handed batters this season and is more of a traditional four-seamer/slider pitcher against lefties. If Cortes is on the roster, the Yankees can show Ohtani two looks left-on-left. Sinkers with Hill, and four-seam/slider with Cortes.

Volpe vs. Freeman

All signs point to Freddie Freeman manning first base when the World Series opens Friday. He has been playing on a sprained right ankle since rolling it running through first base on Sept. 26. The injury is bad enough that Freeman has sat out three games this postseason, including NLDS Game 4 (elimination game) and NLCS Game 6 (pennant-clincher). Can you imagine how much pain Freeman must be in to miss those games?

“Every day I can get off my feet, not running, treating this, is huge,” Freeman said Tuesday. “… I’ve had three straight days of not running, so every day is going to be better. Trying to do the best we can to get it to a spot where we’ll be ready to go on Friday.”

Clear, the ankle injury has diminished Freeman. He’s hitting .219/.242/.219 with little hard-hit ability, he can barely run, and making plays on defense is a challenge. Going into Game 1, Freeman will have played one game in the previous eight days and no runs in the previous six days. The Dodgers will play, at most, seven games in the next nine days. This is as healthy as Freeman’s ankle is going to get, and I expect him to be out there every game in the World Series.

The Yankees could — and should — test Freeman and his injured ankle in the World Series, and pretty much right away too. Their best candidate to do it is shortstop Anthony Volpe, who has shown a willingness to push bunts toward first base, either for hits or sacrifices. Here are a few of Volpe’s push bunts this season:

This is the World Series. There is no mercy. If Freeman is playing on an injured ankle, the Yankees are well within their rights to test it and force Freeman to make plays. The Yankees famously did not bunt on Curt Schilling in Game 6 of the 2004 ALCS (the “Bloody Sock” game), when he was playing on an injured ankle. Schilling went seven innings and the Yankees lost by two runs.

If you are healthy enough to be on the field, you are healthy enough to be expected to perform. Volpe is New York’s best at bunting the ball toward first base, and the Yankees would be wise to test Freeman’s ankle early in the series. If it’s an out, it’s an out, but make Freeman show you can make those plays. Don’t assume he can. He’s playing hurt. The Yankees will likely try to exploit it.