World Test Championship is wide open but England remain on outside

A week on from New Zealand’s 3-0 triumph in India and the result feels no less seismic. The more you consider the history, the disparity in economics or player pools, India’s 12-year unbroken run of dominance in their own conditions and the absence of Kane Williamson, New Zealand’s all-time great with the bat, the harder it is to think of an away victory in modern times to rival it.

India’s fortress had to be breached at some point, not least with flecks of silver creeping into the beards of what could well be their greatest side. But New Zealand as the ones to do it? Their first Test win in India since 1988 to then trigger a cascading clean sweep?

“We’re just a bunch of Kiwis taking on the world,” said Daryl Mitchell, neatly summing up a team that probably fixed the leaking tap in the dressing room before they left.

As a standalone feat it is a generational one, the afterglow from which is unlikely to leave Tom Latham and his men anytime soon. If ever. Although as well as being one half of a historic month when the previously flatlining White Ferns lifted the Women’s T20 World Cup, there is a knock-on effect for Test cricket at large. In their own typically understated way, New Zealand have blown the third edition of the World Test Championship wide open, setting up a three-month run of Test tours with five of the nine teams still vying to make next year’s final at Lord’s.

England, in sixth, are not among them, the WTC having struggled to resonate here since its inception five years ago. Their failure to challenge for the top spots in the three editions to date is probably partly to blame for this apathy; so, too, that they have not held the Ashes during this time. All planning is undertaken with that little urn in mind. More broadly, the historical rivalries baked into mother country status have always provided plenty of context for their supporters.

But outside England, Australia and India, Test cricket had become – and remains – a cause for concern. The reasons are myriad and sparse crowds, it should be said, do not necessarily reflect interest levels. But it is here where the WTC, first won by New Zealand in 2021, and then Australia two years later, is intended to buttress things; to add the extra layer of narrative that leaves Australia, India, Sri Lanka, South Africa and New Zealand all jostling for a Lord’s lunch next June.

The WTC is clearly anything but perfect. Its two-year league phase is absurdly imbalanced – neither all-plays-all or even all-play-the-same-number-of-matches – and a third successive final in England, though understandable given the crowds, the diasporas and the time of year, is the source of grumbles overseas. Afghanistan, Ireland and Zimbabwe, three supposed Test nations, are also locked out completely, left staring through the window like Dickensian urchins.

Even a scoring system that attempts to overcome the asymmetry – points awarded for results but standings dictated by the percentage earned per match – was a happy accident, introduced midway through the first cycle in 2021 when the pandemic was forcing tours to be cancelled. But in its own weird way, it just about works for a world where some teams can afford to host more Test matches than others. Until the money for international cricket is distributed more equitably, it will have to do.

After a month of surprise results capped off by New Zealand’s marmalade-dropper, the latest run-in is shaping up to be a belter. Rewind a month or so and India were top, almost inked in for a third shot at claiming the oversized Chupa Chup that is the ICC mace. Had they brushed aside the Kiwis at home, much like the previous 18 sides hosted, Rohit Sharma’s side would have gone into this month’s Border-Gavaskar Trophy – their final series of the cycle – with plenty of wriggle room.

Instead India have slipped to second and are battling to stay there. Their points percentage is 58.33%, but unless a string of results go their way elsewhere, it will require four wins from five in Australia. Even considering those remarkable 2-1 wins from their two most recent visits – another example of mighty Test feats that need no extra context – it looks tough. Who knows, perhaps their deflated batting lineup, not least Virat Kohli, will welcome the truer surfaces and fire up.

Australia have it pretty sweet, sitting top on 62.5%. But there is a potential sting in the tail. To book a spot outright, rather than sweat on others, they will probably need to win five of their remaining seven Tests, with India at home followed by a two-match affair in Sri Lanka in late January. With one win and four defeats from their past two visits to the island, a doubleheader meeting with Prabath Jayasuriya in Galle is not exactly the scenario they would choose if still in need of a 2-0 win.

All of which means the chasing pack are very much in the hunt, not least third-placed Sri Lanka. On 55.56%, four straight wins against South Africa (away) and Australia would guarantee a spot in the final. South Africa, fifth on 54.17%, can do the same with four straight victories of their own, their advantage being that the Sri Lanka matches and the two-Test series against Pakistan are in their own back yard.

And there is New Zealand, sandwiched between them in fourth and about to host England for three Tests before Christmas. Another 3-0 win brings no guarantees but they could still progress even if they fall just short.

The finalists may not be known until the final day of Sri Lanka v Australia in early February, making for a slow-burn drama that trumps the sugar rush of the various T20 leagues. England, supposed Test cricket evangelists, should not be satisfied with their bit-part role.

WTC final contenders

1. Australia: 62.5%

Best possible finish: 76.32%Remaining fixtures:

Five Tests v India (home, Nov-Jan)

Two Tests v Sri Lanka (away, Jan-Feb)

2. India: 58.33%

Best possible finish: 69.30%Remaining fixtures:

Five Tests v Australia (away, Nov-Jan)

3. Sri Lanka 55.56%

Best possible finish: 69.23%Remaining fixtures:

Two Tests v South Africa (away, Nov-Dec)

Two Tests v Australia (home, Jan-Feb)

4. New Zealand 54.55%

Best possible finish: 64.29%

Remaining fixtures:Three Tests v England (home, Nov-Dec)

5. South Africa: 54.17%

Best possible finish: 69.44%

Remaining fixtures:

Two Tests v Sri Lanka (home, Nov-Dec)

Two Tests v Pakistan (home, Dec-Jan)