World War III Has Already Begun – And Businesses Need To Take Note

The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s despotic regime in Syria this weekend highlights the interconnectedness of a growing number of global conflicts, revealing a hard truth that most of us would rather not think about too deeply: World War III has already begun.

Business leaders need to recognize this and begin planning accordingly.

I am not the only one who believes this. Indeed, JPMorgan Chase & Co. CEO Jamie Dimon said the exact same thing a few weeks ago.

“World War III has already begun. You already have battles on the ground being coordinated in multiple countries,” he told an audience at the International Institute of Finance in late October. “The risk is extraordinary.”

The defeat of the Russian-backed regime in Syria underscores Dimon’s point. Assad would surely have been ousted by the popular uprising that began in 2011 were it not for the direct intervention of Russian forces in 2015. Since then, the Russians along with Iran and its proxies, managed to prop up an otherwise untenable dictatorship, killing thousands and displacing millions of civilians in the process.

Until they couldn’t.

The war in Ukraine sapped Russia’s strength and diminished its ability to maintain its defense of the Assad regime just as surely as the successful Russian defense of Stalingrad taxed Germany’s military might, contributing to its loss of North Africa in 1943. Israel’s defeat of Hezbollah and its attacks on Iran itself made it hard for Tehran to stay in the fight in Syria as well.

What we are beginning to see is an interconnectedness among conflicts as seemingly disparate as the war between Russia and Ukraine and the fight between Israel and Hamas the likes of which we have not seen since 1945. This trend is likely to continue and expand, drawing more countries and regions into the vortex.

That is why I say World War III has already begun — not because the United States is on the brink of war with Russia, or China for that matter (though that may still happen as well).

While these conflicts may seem distinct at first glance, they share several characteristics that justify viewing them as components of a single, overarching global conflict. These include the involvement of major powers either directly or through proxies, the intertwining of political, economic, and ideological objectives, and the cascading impact of one conflict on others, creating a chain reaction of instability.

Much like the early stages of previous world wars, these interconnected crises are eroding the boundaries between local and global conflicts, drawing nations and alliances into a broader struggle for dominance and survival. This, more than isolated battles, is what defines a world war.

What does this mean for business?

Why should you care about this? Because this expanding global conflict is going to have an increasingly significant impact on your business. It is going to impact the global economy. It is going to impact your supply chain. It is going to impact your customers.

It already has, directly or indirectly, and that impact is going to increase as the fighting spreads.

As Dimon warned, “(W)e can’t take the chance this will resolve itself.”

We must prepare — not tomorrow, but today.

Preparing for World War III means understanding the risks global conflict poses to your company. Once you understand those risks, you can alter your strategies to minimize those risks or develop contingency plans to mitigate them.

Preparing for World War III also means understanding the opportunities global conflict creates for your company. Recognizing opportunities in this context does not necessarily mean exploiting conflict for profit but rather identifying ways your business can contribute positively while navigating these challenges.

Ethical opportunities might include supporting humanitarian aid efforts, investing in technologies that enhance supply chain resilience, or providing resources for reconstruction and infrastructure development in affected regions. These actions not only align with corporate social responsibility but also position your company as a trusted partner in rebuilding and resilience.

Business leaders must recognize that every crisis also creates opportunities, and failing to identify those and take advantage of them can be just as perilous as failing to identify the risks and mitigate them.

War and rumors of war

This conflict, while increasingly global in its nature and scope, will be very different from the world wars of the last century. As Clausewitz observed, “Every age had its own kind of war, its own limiting conditions and its own peculiar preconceptions.”

This one is likely to proceed in fits and starts, at least in the near term. Trump may well force an end to the war in Ukraine, but I expect Russia will use that peace to rebuild and rearm before continuing its effort to redraw the map of Europe. Before long, the fighting will resume, either in Ukraine or somewhere else along NATO’s eastern front.

When it does, it will be worse, and the consequences greater and more far-reaching. This is why a growing number of European leaders, from French President Emmanuel Macron to the U.K.’s new defense chief General Sir Roly Walker have begun warning that full scale war with Russia is likely within the next few years.

As a business leader, you cannot let temporary pauses in the fighting delude you into believing that the crisis has passed. Rather, we must all gird ourselves for a new era of global conflict.