All four MLB wild-card series featured a 2023 postseason participant facing an opponent that missed the playoffs last year. The returning team was eliminated in each instance.
Welcome to October baseball.
With four intriguing — and largely dissimilar — matchups set for the League Division Series, FOX Sports MLB experts Deesha Thosar and Rowan Kavner preview and predict the upcoming round in this week’s roundtable.
1. Which team is currently better built for the postseason, the Dodgers or the Padres?
Thosar: The more I think about it, the more of a toss-up this is. On one hand, San Diego’s pitching has outpaced Los Angeles’ across the board since adding key arms at the trade deadline. The Padres lead the National League with a 3.38 ERA in the second half, while the Dodgers are eighth at 4.16. It was obvious why Padres pitching has been such a boon for them in their wild-card series against the Braves, particularly with starter Michael King shoving seven scoreless innings in his first career playoff start, but also because of their dominant bullpen.
Also since the All-Star break, San Diego registered the NL’s second-best bullpen ERA (3.16) and WHIP (1.15). The Padres have one of the most important postseason elements — excellent pitching — fine-tuned for a deep October run. With that said, the Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani. It will be fascinating to see how Ohtani performs in his first career postseason, and if his finish to his first season with the Dodgers was any indication, he can eradicate excellent pitching just as much as he can pounce on mistakes. In the end, since playoff baseball is increasingly dependent on a deep pitching staff, I’ll give the edge to San Diego.
Kavner: The Padres, who right now might be better built for the postseason than any team in baseball. I think the Dodgers possess the scariest offense in the playoff field. Beyond the obvious big three at the top, the lineup looks deeper now than it did at the beginning of the year. Still, the Padres have the highest batting average and lowest whiff rate in the majors. They will make a pitcher work, their superstars have gotten hot at the right time, and whatever disadvantage they might have offensively is mitigated by their advantage on the pitching side.
The Joe Musgrove injury hurts, assuming he’ll miss time, but there are still more reliable arms in the Padres’ rotation than what their injured counterparts have to offer. This is not the group the Dodgers envisioned when they assembled their roster in the offseason. Game 1 starter Yoshinobu Yamamoto looked good in his return from the injured list in September, but he’s still building his way back up after missing nearly three months with a shoulder injury and doesn’t appear likely to be available on short rest in October.
Game 2 starter Jack Flaherty had a sensational season but enters the playoffs with a 6.43 ERA in his past three starts. There’s a lot of pressure on the Dodgers’ bullpen to hold things together, and there’s a strong argument to be made that the Padres might hold the advantage there, too, with the moves they made at the deadline.
2. Is there an area that you believe the Royals match up favorably with the Yankees or a weakness that they can exploit?
Kavner: The Yankees have the clear Game 1 advantage with a well-rested Gerrit Cole going against Michael Wacha, but it’s not going to be a walk in the park for Yankees hitters. Wacha had a 2.79 ERA in the second half. The Yankees ranked 22nd in the majors in batting average against changeups this year, which is Wacha’s go-to pitch. Aaron Judge and Jazz Chisholm Jr., two of the Yankees’ best hitters against offspeed stuff, are a combined 1-for-21 in a small sample against Wacha. (The problem for Yankees opponents is they have to then deal with Juan Soto, so, good luck.)
And if the Royals manage to steal that game, things could get interesting quickly. I think Kansas City would have the rotation advantage the rest of the way with Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo slated to follow.
Their starters outdueling the Yankees’ is their only path to victory, because that Kansas City offense hasn’t offered much lately outside of Bobby Witt Jr. With the Astros and Orioles out, the Yankees have no excuse if they fall short of a trip to the World Series. The American League is theirs to lose.
Thosar: One of their best chances to gain leverage over the Yankees will be in Game 1, when Michael Wacha takes the hill for the Royals. Why? Wacha is one of the few pitchers in baseball who has managed to figure out how to retire Aaron Judge. Get ready for this: Judge has a .056 batting average and an identical .056 slugging percentage over 21 career plate appearances against the veteran right-hander, which includes one single and 11 strikeouts. It’s hard to believe. Besides Astros right-hander Cristian Javier, who Judge is hitless against in 13 career at-bats, the .056 mark is Judge’s lowest batting average facing any pitcher he’s had at least 10 at-bats against in his career.
Wacha should have all the confidence in the world facing Judge to open the ALDS, and Judge is surely aware of his history against him. That’s an enormous weakness the Royals can exploit immediately in Game 1, potentially removing one of two gigantic threats in the Yankees lineup as soon as Saturday.
3. Who would the Phillies have rather seen in the NLDS, the Brewers or the Mets?
Thosar: The Brewers. This seems like an easy one, particularly because the last time the Phillies faced the Mets at Citi Field, New York took three out of four against Philly and used them as a springboard to better position them to contend for the playoffs. The Phillies’ division rivalry against the Mets will only intensify the NLDS for the team and the crowd, potentially adding unneeded pressure should the series start off worse than they’d hoped.
The Mets have been one of the hottest teams in the league, and they would have no fear about playing at the loud and raucous Citizens Bank Park. That’s not to say facing the Brewers would be a cake walk for the Phillies, particularly because of how elite Milwaukee is on the basepaths, in the bullpen, and at defense, plus how quickly Jackson Chourio can change the game with his glove and his bat. But the Phillies went 4-2 against the Brewers in the regular season, versus 7-6 against the Mets, and if they were to figure out how to get old friend Rhys Hoskins out, then Milwaukee’s offense wouldn’t pose as big of a threat to Philly’s pitching staff.
Kavner: The Brewers. The Phillies have a winning record against both, but the lack of starting pitching options in the Milwaukee rotation, the way the Brewers offense slowed down late in the year and the way the Mets have played down the stretch, New York looks like the more dangerous opponent. Moot point now, though!
4. What is the Tigers‘ blueprint to upsetting the Guardians?
Kavner: It has to look more like it did in Game 1 of the wild-card series than Game 2. No, I don’t mean pitch Tarik Skubal in every game, though that would be a nice thought for Detroit fans. If the Tigers can replicate the timely hitting they had in Houston, they’ll have a chance. But it has to happen early. They have to win the first few innings and attack the Guardians’ vulnerable rotation before Cleveland turns the game over to the best bullpen in baseball. The Tigers’ collection of relief arms helped them get to this point, but tight games late will favor the Guardians.
Thosar: The Tigers are dangerous when they expertly carry an unselfish approach in their pitching staff. Of course, their success starts and ends with a dominant outing from ace and triple crown winner Tarik Skubal. But aside from the southpaw, Detroit is at its best when pitchers of all types and experience come into their outings and shove. There is no arguing with manager A.J. Hinch when he walks out of the dugout to take someone out.
Tigers pitchers do a better job than arguably any other pitching staff in the playoffs at being egoless and understanding that their roles include being used anytime, anywhere. They refer to this concept as “pitching chaos,” which includes using openers instead of traditional starters — yes, even in playoff games. That chaos could disrupt the Guardians offense without giving them time to create a game plan or breathing room to adjust.
5. Who will win each LDS?
Yankees vs. Royals
– Thosar: Yankees — Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are like caged animals waiting to be released into the arena. Also, the Yankees dominate the AL Central, and this is now their easiest path to the World Series in several years, particularly with the Astros eliminated.
– Kavner: Yankees — Aaron Judge vs Bobby Witt Jr. will be incredible theater, but I don’t think the Royals have enough offense behind Witt to keep up.
Guardians vs. Tigers
– Thosar: Tigers — The inspired way the Tigers played to end the regular season, and the complete-team effort they showed to eliminate Baltimore in the wild card series, has convinced me that they’re this year’s Cinderella story that, at least, deserves to show their chops against the Yankees in a potential ALCS.
– Kavner: Guardians — I probably shouldn’t go against whatever is happening right now in Detroit, but all those Cleveland relievers in a short series might just be overwhelming enough to end the Motor City magic.
Phillies vs. Mets
– Thosar: Mets — They’re defying the odds left and right, and it wouldn’t be smart to bet against them right now. The Mets won three out of four against the Phillies in their final homestand of the season, and after a rest day on Friday, they should have no fear walking into Citizens Bank Park with the way they’re playing right now.
– Kavner: Phillies — I said earlier this year I thought the Phillies were the most complete team in a season full of flawed clubs, and I’m going to stick with them. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, plus that rotation should get it done if the bullpen can hold up.
Dodgers vs. Padres
– Thosar: Padres — San Diego’s pitching is lights out and has the depth required in a short and long series. Even though the Dodgers have Shohei Ohtani as their lethal weapon, their pitching doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
– Kavner: Padres — At full strength, I’d take the Dodgers. Shohei Ohtani is capable of carrying any club almost single-handedly the way he’s playing lately, but with their rotation in such rough shape, and with questions about Freddie Freeman’s health, and with the way the Padres have come together after their midseason adds, and for all the reasons I listed in question No. 1 above, I think San Diego now has the edge.
Deesha Thosar is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. The daughter of Indian immigrants, Deesha grew up on Long Island and now lives in Queens. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on Twitter at @RowanKavner.
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