Zozo Championship betting guide: 4 picks our gambling expert loves this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour gambling-tips column, featuring picks from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator Brady Kannon. A seasoned golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a regular guest on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network devoted to sports and sport betting. You can follow on Twitter at @LasVegasGolfer, and you can read his picks below for the Zozo Championship, which gets underway Wednesday in Japan. Along with Kannon’s recommended plays, you’ll also see data from Chirp Golf, a mobile app that features both Free-To-Play and Daily Fantasy golf contests where you can win cash and prizes with each round and tournament.

The FedEx Cup Fall shifts from the United States to Japan this week for the Zozo Championship at Narashino Country Club in Chiba, Japan. This will be the sixth edition of the Zozo and the fifth time it has been held at Narashino. The list of past winners is star-studded and the field this week is the best we have seen so far this fall. Collin Morikawa is back to defend his 2023 title.

It was here in 2019 when Tiger Woods won for the 82nd time on the PGA Tour. Patrick Cantlay won in 2020 at Sherwood Country Club in Los Angeles. And then back at Narashino, Hideki Matsuyama captured the trophy in 2021, Keegan Bradley in 2022, and Morikawa last year.

Joining Morikawa, Xander Schauffele is in the field this week along with Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im and Sahith Theegala. It is a limited field event with only 78 players taking part, and there is no 36-hole cut.

There are multiple 18-hole courses on the property. The tournament will be played using a combination of the King and Queen courses, ultimately putting together a par-70 test that will stretch to just under 7,100 yards. The fairways are Zoysiagrass, dog-leg in both directions, and are tree-lined but the rough is not entirely penal. The greens are on the smaller side, feature some undulation, and are Bentgrass. The layout offers up five par 3s, three par 5s, and 10 Par 4s. The par 4s are either very much birdie opportunities, measuring between 350-425 yards, or they are very demanding, measuring 485-500+ yards. The average winning score over the past four editions at Narashino has been less than 16 under par. Here in Las Vegas at the Westgate SuperBook, oddsmaker Jeff Sherman set the winning score Over/Under this week at 14.5 under par.

Our handicap is somewhat limited this week with past editions of the Zozo Championship not fully providing Strokes Gained data. What I have been able to gather however, is that ball-striking and putting appear to be at a premium. If you just look at the most recent past winners (Morikawa, Bradley, and Matsuyama), they are excellent Total Drivers off the tee and some of the game’s best iron players — aka ball-striking. Secondly, available stats have told us that the winners have ranked especially high for Greens in Regulation and Putting Average. I also looked at Scrambling this week with the smaller than average greens.

As for correlated courses, I think there are some interesting connections this week. I like how the demands of the layouts are similar to PGA National (Cognizant Classic), The Renaissance Club (Scottish Open), and Silverado in Napa (Procore Championship), as well as Memorial Park in Houston (Houston Open) and Detroit Golf Club (Rocket Mortgage Classic). And then there is Valhalla (2024 PGA Championship) that features Zoysiagrass fairways and Bentgrass greens, as does TPC Craig Ranch (Byron Nelson). Zoysiagrass fairways and smaller greens are the recipe at TPC Southwind where former Zozo champion Matsuyama just won this past summer.

Beau Hossler (38-1)

No, I’m not going to try Harry Hall again, even though he’s been going along pretty well, but I am going to go back to Hossler, who has also been in fine form. He was second at Sanderson Farms, 11th the next week in Utah, and 23rd last week in Las Vegas. His history at this course is excellent too, finishing runner-up last year and 16th in 2022. He has plenty of top-25 finishes on the correlated courses and in this field this week, Hossler ranks in the top 20 over the last 36 rounds for Scrambling, Greens in Regulation Gained, the short Par 4s, and is seventh for SG: Putting (Bentgrass).

Will Zalatoris (45-1)

This will be the first time we have seen “Willie Z” in two months and I like everything about it. He’s had that time off to rest and continue to work on the health of his back – and the last two times we did see him back in August, he finished 12th at the FedEx St. Jude Championship and 13^th the next week at the BMW Championship in Colorado. In those two events, his putting, scrambling, and greens in regulation numbers were excellent. He’s played here before, finishing 54th in 2021, so he’s familiar with the course. Iron play and ball-striking have always been his strong suits and some of his best results have been at TPC Southwind, another course with small greens and Zoysiagrass fairways. We’ll see. I feel like he can have a good week.

J.J. Spaun (50-1)

Spaun is another player who has made his living as a ball-striker. Over the last 36 rounds, Spaun ranks top-8 in this field for SG: Ball Striking, SG: Approach, SG on the short Par 4s, and in Greens in Regulation Gained. And it has shown up here in the past with a sixth-place finish last year and a 25th in 2022. He’s finished 26-25-34 in three events this fall and prior to that, recorded two top-10 finishes to close out his summer. Spaun has done particularly well at a couple of the correlated courses, having never missed a cut at the Rocket Mortgage Classic with finishes as high as eighth, 10th, and 13th — along with a ninth and an 11^th at the Procore Championship in Napa.

Ryo Hisatsune (100-1)

The Japan native has played in this event the last three years in a row, and he’s gotten progressively better. Hisatsune finished 52nd in his debut in 2021 and has finished 12th and sixth since then. He finished his summer with a third place finish at the Wyndham Championship and was 25th two weeks ago in Utah. The Zoysiagrass-Bentgrass combination seems to be to his liking as he finished 13th this past spring at TPC Craig Ranch and then took 18th at Valhalla at the PGA Championship. His ball-striking is excellent. Over the last 36 rounds, he ranks 15th in this field for SG: Approach, 17th for SG: Ball Striking, and fifth in Greens in Regulation Gained.

Who Chirp Golf players are picking this week

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